TURKEY ACCORD RINGS ALARM BELLS

Institute for War and Peace Reporting
Oct 15 2009
UK

Armenians do not share world’s joy over protocols, fear Ankara has a
hidden agenda.

By Naira Melkumian and Gayane Mkrtchian in Yerevan, and Karine Ohanian
in Stepanakert

Armenia’s diplomatic and border agreement with Turkey, signed in
Zurich on October 10, comes against a background of strong misgivings
at home and even stronger concerns among the powerful Armenian
diaspora.

The two protocols that were signed set a timetable for restoring
diplomatic ties and reopening their joint border and are subject to
approval in the two parliaments.

The deal was mediated by Switzerland and signed in the presence of
senior officials from several countries including United States
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.

"We believe strongly that this is in the best interests of both
Armenia and Turkey. We recognise how hard it is, and what courage it
takes to move forward in the face of very strong opposition in both
countries," Clinton told journalists later.

That was an understatement. Many Armenians say the government betrayed
the memories of up to 1.5 million Armenians killed in Turkey in 1915
by making peace with the successor of the Ottoman Empire.

Armenian president Serzh Sargsyan spent the first week of October
travelling around the main centres of Armenia’s ten million-strong
diaspora, seeking to persuade them of the importance of the deal.

"I am convinced that your support and your desires are directed at
making our visits interesting and successful, and will give me the
possibility of expressing my sincere opinion to our brothers and
sisters abroad, of finding out their opinion, and of course, take into
account both their opinion and the fact that the majority of Armenians
live outside Armenia," Sargsyan told the country on the eve of his
trip.

But his appeal was not successful. In Paris, the police clashed with
Armenian demonstrators when they tried to clear a space so that
Sargsyan could lay flowers at the memorial to the 1915 victims. There
were also large protests in New York, Los Angeles and Lebanon, where
protesters chanted "no to the protocols" and "president, don’t betray
us".

The opinion of Hakob Petrosian, an Armenian living in Cyprus, was
typical. He said Sargsyan might consider himself president of all
Armenians, but those in the diaspora felt betrayed.

"Sooner or later, Turkey would open its border so as to become a
member of the European Union. He should have waited," Petrosian said.

The opinion is common inside Armenia as well, and analysts said
Sargsyan’s decision to force through peace with Armenia’s large,
wealthy neighbour could backfire on the president.

"Many Armenians think these protocols are badly thought through, and
contain a number of diplomatic and political time bombs. In such a
situation, the opposition parties with support from a significant part
of the population could become a major force. This could provoke a new
political crisis in Armenia," said Shushan Khatlamajian, a respected
Armenian analyst.

The Armenian government said the protocols did not imply that it was
abandoning its demand that Turkey recognise the deaths of Armenians in
Ottoman Turkey during World War One as genocide. Turkey denies that
genocide is a correct description.

"With these protocols, Armenia is not accepting any obligations, is
not making any unilateral promises. Armenia is signing these protocols
with the aim of creating conditions for the establishment of normal
conditions between the two countries," said Sargsyan in a television
address on the eve of the ceremony.

But Armenians, as always when the genocide question is discussed, were
distrustful.

"The genocide, which killed millions of Armenians, the mass
resettlement of Armenians across the whole world as a result, and the
mistrust between the two peoples created an emotional, rather than a
rational assessment of these events," said Gagik Baghdasarian, a
Yerevan schoolteacher.

Armenia’s business elite, however, had no hesitation in welcoming the
move, which will give Armenian producers and importers a whole new
market to trade with. Turkish goods have entered Armenia for years,
but only via Georgia, meaning they have been more expensive than they
need be.

The Armenian parliament’s economics committee said that, by even a
pessimistic estimate, the national economy would expand by three per
cent because of the move, while exports would increase by almost a
third.

"If the border is opened, the economy of Armenia will get new
possibilities, we will receive access to new markets, the
possibilities of communication will improve and we will be able to
integrate further into the world economy," said Finance Minister
Tigran Davtian.

But the doubters are not convinced by the argument, saying that
economic ties could undermine Armenian independence, since the
country’s businessmen are in no position to compete with their
counterparts in much larger Turkey.

The opposition Dashnaktsutiun party, which has battled for recognition
of the 1915 deaths as genocide for nearly a century, said Armenia
lacked methods to protect its own producers, who could be swallowed up
by competition from over the border.

Dashnaktsutiun is particularly strong in the diaspora, which is an
important source of financial help for Armenia and also lobbies for
its interests abroad, and some opposition politicians fear the
protocols could undermine global Armenian unity.

"The Dashnaktsutiun party decisively intends to block the ratification
process of the Armenian-Turkish protocols. To achieve this, it is
prepared to use all possible political and constitutional methods,"
said Hay Dat, head of the party’s political office.

Kiro Manoian, head of the party’s office for political issues, pointed
to a statement made by Turkish prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan
that Turkey would not open the border until there was a resolution to
the conflict over Nagorny Karabakh. Karabakh, which is ruled by
Armenians but internationally considered part of Turkey’s ally
Azerbaijan, has long been a block to relations between Ankara and
Yerevan.

"Turkey does not intend to open the border with Armenia, and is using
all its force to avoid recognition of the genocide," Manoian said.

A number of Armenian analysts agree with him, and point to press
reports that a three-hour delay in the Zurich signing ceremony was
caused by Armenia’s insistence that the Turkish foreign minister
remove a veiled reference to Karabakh in a speech he was due to make.

"The delay in the signing of the protocols revealed Turkey’s strategy,
to play with Armenia and to create new conditions before every issue
can be resolved. This causes me concern, although the Armenian side is
holding to its positions," said Ruben Safrastian, director of the
Oriental Institute at the Armenian National Academy of Sciences.

Movses Hakobian, defence minister in the government that rules Nagorny
Karabakh, said he was not concerned.

"I have an Armenian education and reading these protocols I have no
fears for the Nagorny Karabakh republic. As defence minister, I do not
want to comment on the actions of the president of Armenia. I can just
say that the Nagorny Karabakh problem cannot be resolved without
Karabakh’s participation," he told A1+ television.

However, ordinary residents of the unrecognised state were not so confident.

"Today it is clear that the Turkish authorities are linking the
protocols’ ratification in parliament with the Karabakh question, and
are aiming to gain territorial and political concessions from the
Armenians… There is no doubt that the Turks are trying to focus their
interest on territorial concessions in Karabakh. This is a real threat
for us," said Masis Mayilian, chairman of Nagorny Karabakh’s public
council for foreign politics and security.

Naira Melkumian is freelance journalist in Yerevan. Karine Ohanian and
Gayane Mkrtchian are members of IWPR’s Cross Caucasus Journalism
Network.