TURKEY’S CAUCASUS ALLIES PONDER ARMENIA DEAL
By Kenan Guluzade in Baku

Institute for War and Peace Reporting
Oct 15 2009
UK

Azeris say Turkey’s border accord with Armenia is a betrayal of
their alliance.

The Turkey-Armenia peace deal has angered Azeris, who accuse Ankara
of betraying them by not tying its signature to a resolution of the
Karabakh conflict.

Turkey and Azerbaijan, whose people are close ethnic kin, have been
allies since the end of the Soviet period, and Turkey broke off ties
with Armenia in 1993 to support Azerbaijan over the Karabakh conflict.

Now, 15 years after the war ended with a ceasefire, Armenians still
rule Nagorny Karabakh as a self-proclaimed state – in defiance of the
international community, which considers it part of Azerbaijan – and
Armenian forces hold around a seventh of Azerbaijan’s internationally
recognised territory.

"Sometimes the opinion is expressed that the normalisation of
Turkish-Armenian relations, the opening of the border, could in
future help the regulation of the Nagorny Karabakh conflict. I do
not support these opinions," said President Ilham Aliev on the eve
of the signing ceremony.

"I think that if Turkish-Armenian relations normalise before the
Karabakh problem is resolved, then the position of Armenia in the
talks process will toughen. I am absolutely convinced that these two
processes – the regulation of the Nagorny Karabakh conflict and the
opening of the Turkish-Armenian border – should move in parallel.

Maybe there is no official connection between these processes, but
there is an unofficial one."

The day after the October 10 signing ceremony, Azerbaijan’s newspaper
headlines made clear the country’s reaction to the move. "Everyone
agrees, except Azerbaijan," said the Mirror. "The Armenian-Turkish
protocols are signed. Will Turkey keep its promise to Azerbaijan?"

asked the Echo.

On October 13, activists from the Organisation for the Liberation
of Karabakh protested outside the Turkish embassy. The next day,
they held another protests, with about 40 people taking part – a
large number for an unsanctioned demonstration in Baku. The police
broke up both protests, and detained several participants, but not
before the protesters had shouted their slogans.

The protesters shouted "Shame on the Turkish government", "No
ratification" and "Turkey, don’t betray Azerbaijan" and burned
portraits of the Turkish president, prime minister and foreign
minister.

Analysts doubted the protest would change much, however, and said
direct pressure should be put on the Turkish government.

"To hold this protest in Azerbaijan is ineffective. Only large protests
in Turkey can affect the process. And we must act in solidarity with
the Turkish opponents of the protocols’ ratification," said Boyukaga
Agayev, an expert on the South Caucasus.

Large protests in Turkey have not materialised, however, although
opposition parties have pledged to disrupt the ratification process,
and pro-Azerbaijan activists have distributed anti-Armenian stickers
and Azerbaijani flags.

Not everyone in Azerbaijan thinks they should. Ilgar Mammadov,
co-founder of the opposition Republican Alternative Civic Union
movement, said he hoped Turkey and Armenia would sign their peace
deal, thus giving Turkey a chance to counteract Russian influence
in the South Caucasus. Armenia is currently a close Russian ally,
and Moscow has military bases there.

"If the border is opened, over time Turkey and its western partners
will be able to build a solid and legitimate economic and political
presence in Armenia. That presence would allow them to drag Armenia
out of the hands of the decision-makers in the Kremlin when Baku and
Yerevan are close to a deal next time," he said.

But his opinion is a rare one. Most opposition politicians in
Azerbaijan, no matter how fierce their criticism of the government
on other questions, line up behind Aliev when it comes to Karabakh.

"I think it is necessary to hold talks with the Turkish government
and appeal to the Turkish people. In Turkey, the government cannot
take a step on this without the support of the nation. The will of
the Turkish nation could force the government to refrain from taking
this step," said Ali Kerimli, chairman of the opposition Party of
the National Front of Azerbaijan.

Turkey’s parliament is due to vote on ratifying the deal on October
21, according to officials in Ankara, and Azeri politicians still
hope the deal might be avoided.

"We hope that during the discussion of the protocols in the Turkish
parliament, the deputies will unanimously tell Armenia and the world
that ratification of these documents is possible only after the
liberation of the occupied territories of Azerbaijan," said Ganira
Pashayeva, who also singled out France, Russia and America, which
attended the signing ceremony , as possible friends of Azerbaijan.

"First of all, they must put pressure on Yerevan, so Armenia frees the
Azerbaijani lands. Peace and cooperation in the region are possible
only after Armenia leaves the occupied territories."