Trend, Azerbaijan
Oct 15 2009

Interior confrontation in Armenia not to lead to replacement in state power:
experts

Azerbaijan, Baku, Oct. 15 / Trend News E.Tariverdiyeva /

Interior confrontation Armenia caused by the opposition’s dissatisfaction
with the normalization of relations with Turkey will not lead to replacement
in state power in the country, experts believe.

"I doubt very much whether the ratification would lead to a change of
leadership in Armenia.
The problem is that nobody has enough power to overthrow the present
government", believes Amanda Akcakoca, European Expert on South Caucasus.

Despite the ban of Yerevan executive Power, the Dashnaktsutiun party will
rally on Oct.16 to protest the Armenian-Turkish protocols.

"[…] our goal is to explain the public and authorities the threat of these
protocols and to persuade them to retreat from that decision," head of the
Dashnaktsutsun Revolution Federation Parliamentary Group Vaan Ovannisyan
said at the news-conference in Yerevan, the Mediamax reported.

Speaking about the possible demand on the resignation of the Armenian
President, Ovannisyan noted that the change of power is not an end in
itself. It can only be a mean to achieve the main goal – the refusal to
ratify the protocol.

Turkish and Armenian Foreign Ministers, Ahmet Davudoglu and Edward
Nalbandian signed the Ankara-Yerevan protocol in Zurich on Oct. 10.

Armenian-Turkish ties have been severed since 1993 due to Armenia’s claims
to recognize so-called "Armenian genocide" and Armenia’s occupation of
Azerbaijani lands.

According to observers, the internal situation in Armenia will heat up, but
will not lead to a change in the leadership of the country.

The path ahead is full of potholes and will be particularly difficult for
Armenia,Akcakoca believes.

"Parliamentary majority of Armenia will face a growing reaction and pressure
from both the Dashnaks inside the country and externally from the diaspora
community who are extremely unhappy about a number of elements in the
Protocol, Expert of the European Policy Centre (Belgium), Akcakoca wrote to
Trend News by email.

Although, opposition will do their best to prevent ratification, Sarkisian
needs to stay strong and bite the bullet. Firstly because his credibility is
at stake but also because at the end of the day Armenia will be better off
all round with normalization of relations with Turkey which should bring an
end to their isolation, the expert said.

According to the Turkish political scientist Sinan Ogan, despite the fact
that Armenia’s opposition is radical, at the moment it will not take extreme
measures.

"I believe no radical changes in the Armenian policy will take place in the
near future, director of the Turkish Center for International Studies and
Strategic Analysis Ogan said over the telephone.

The outlook for any possible "change of leadership" within Armenia depends
on a very different set of variables, Director of the Armenian Center for
National and International Studies (ACNIS) Richard Giragosian believes.

Although the external factors of the normalization effort with Turkey and
the outcome of the protocols play an important role in determining the
future of the current Armenian government, these issues serve more as
secondary pressures, as the real test is strictly internal in nature,
Giragosian added.

The Armenian government of President Serzh Sargsyan has largely been driven
by a need or even a sense of "desperation" for a success in foreign policy,
to both endow it with a greater sense of legitimacy and to distract scrutiny
away from domestic deficiencies in democratization, the director wrote to
Trend News via e-mail.

This is due to the impact of Armenia’s post-election crisis of last year,
which remains unresolved and that has made this particular Armenian
government more unpopular and much less legitimate than any previous
Armenian government.

"This also means that even in the "best case" scenario, assuming a complete
"diplomatic victory" by Armenia in terms of forging new relations with
Turkey, such "success" will do little to solve the underlying problems and
shortcomings in the lack of democracy and authoritarian rule within
Armenia," the expert said.

R.Hafizoglu and V.Zhavoronkova contributed to the article.