Sunday Herald, UK
October 11, 2009 Sunday
Final Edition

Can Turkey and Armenia end their 100 years of hate?

BY: TREVOR ROYLE

IT was always on the cards that the long-expected approchement between
Turkey and Armenia would go to the wire in Zurich.

Following weeks of cautious negotiations, last-minute cracks began to
appear in the protocols and as this decisive weekend approached, both
sides seemed to get cold feet. Hardly surprising, really: there is too
much history involved and too many bad memories of the massacres of
1915 which blighted relations between the two countries for the better
part of a century.

That long shadow encouraged the Armenian diaspora to exert its
influence by informing president Serzh Sargsyan in no uncertain terms
that they would refuse to co-operate with the joint historical
commission which would be established by the agreement. Obviously, the
historians could get to work without their help, but it would be a
massive symbolic blow if the Armenian exiles refused to co-operate in
the attempt to discover the truth of what actually happened all those
years ago when 1.5 million innocents lost their lives.

The Armenians say it was genocide and fear that the historians will
fudge the issue; the Turks say it was no such thing and have no
intention of accepting responsibility for the ghosts of their
forebears. Is it still such a live issue almost 100 years later? You
bet it is. At a rally in Beirut last week, Sargsyan was confronted by
an agitated crowd of 2000 ethnic Armenians waving banners saying: "We
will not forget."

Neither should they. Even if the Turks cavil over the use of the word
genocide, there is now no doubt that under Ottoman rule a systematic
attempt took place to get rid of the mainly Christian Armenian
population who were suspected of giving aid to Russia during the fi
rst world war. Huge numbers were rounded up and deported to areas such
as the Syrian desert, and there was ample contemporary eyewitness
evidence of the wholesale execution of Armenian men, women and
children. Those who managed to escape the killings died on the march
or in camps which were little better than unsanitary hovels. From any
historical viewpoint it was a bleak incident in an equally bleak
conflict and no-one should be surprised that it has come back to haunt
us today.

But there is more to the mutual suspicions than disagreement over the
irretrievable past. Armenia is currently at odds with its neighbour
Azerbaijan over possession of the mountainous enclave of
Nagorno-Karabakh, which lies between the two countries and has been
the source of rivalry in the years following the breakup of the Soviet
Union in 1991. During the subsequent confrontation, the issue was
clouded when Afghan and Chechen fighters sided with Azerbaijan – as
did Turkey – and there was a real fear that the fighting would spill
over and ignite a wider conflict in central Asia. That concern has not
disappeared: despite a Russian-brokered ceasefire in 1994,
Nagorno-Karabakh is still a tinderbox awaiting the spark.

Last week, diplomats from the US and the EU turned up in strength in
the Moldovan capital of Chisinau intent on knocking some sense into
collective heads.

Not only do the Americans and the Europeans want to remove a clear and
present danger, but they need to do so to protect their own interests.
If the oil and gas pipelines between Europe and central Asia are to be
protected, it is essential that the volatile south Caucasus region is
secured by getting all the partners onside. That’s why it’s so
important that Turkey and Armenia put aside ancient differences and
agree to some modest regional co-operation by reopening their borders.
And that’s why US secretary of state Hillary Rodham Clinton was
planning to turn up in Zurich yesterday to make sure that both sides
put their names to the agreement.

Just look at the map for confirmation.

Iran lies to the south and in this turbulent region Turkey has always
been a solid ally of the US by providing the strategically important
Nato air base at Incirlik and a bulwark against Islamic
fundamentalism. At a time when the US needs fi rm friends to help it
cope with Iran’s nuclear ambitions, Turkey could emerge as a key
player. So too could Armenia which desperately wants past injustices
to be righted and to find its place in the sun.

And in Ankara they will understand that nothing is for nothing.
Turkey’s application for EU membership is still on the table and looks
increasingly as if it will be blocked by joint German, French and
Italian opposition. The Turks too will be looking for a little help
from their friends because at times like this the past might be
important, but it’s not the whole story.