WPS Agency, Russia
October 13, 2009 Tuesday

COST OF MATTER

by: Victor Mizin, Assistant Director of the Institute of International
Studies (Moscow State Institute of International Relations)

HIGHLIGHT: ANALYSIS OF THE REGIONAL AND GEOPOLITICAL IMPORTANCE OF THE
ARMENIAN FACTOR FOR MOSCOW; Armenia remains Russia’s closest ally in
the South Caucasus.

Viewed against the background of countless failures and errors within
the framework of the processes of post-Soviet integration, visit of
Armenian President Serj Sargsjan to Moscow attains additional
importance. It is clear that Moscow has much more riding on it than
its relations with Yerevan as such. Support of Armenia at this time is
of paramount importance for the Russian strategy in all of the
post-Soviet zone. First and foremost, it concerns the Commonwealth, an
organization tottering on the brink of disintegration and becoming "a
civilized form of divorce" indeed.

Relations with Armenia, Russia’s closest strategic ally in the South
Caucasus, are one of the few spheres where the rumors on the premature
demise of post-Soviet integration might be refuted yet.

No need to say that security and stability of the South Caucasus is in
Russia’s own interests – first and foremost so as to quench terrorism
on the territory of its own republics of the Caucasus. Neutralization
of the Georgian aggression against South Ossetia in August 2008
displayed Russian leadership’s resolve to act in a firm and determined
manner to protect its citizens and national interests.

Vying for clout with the region in question, Russia is compelled to
compromise with the United States, Turkey, and united Europe.

Additional importance to the Armenian factor is attached by the fact
that an emphasis in Russian policy these days is made on development
of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, Eurasian Economic Community,
and CIS Collective Security Treaty or CSTO. This latter is unlikely to
become a local clone of or political counterweight to NATO. As for
being a structure displaying benefits of integration for all to see
and recognized by the UN, Council of Europe, and OCSE, it has at least
a fighting chance.

Armenia stands for activization of the military component of the CSTO.
It did a lot for establishment of the CSTO Collective Rapid Deployment
Forces. It goes without saying that the Russian diplomacy knows that
it can count on Armenian support in Eurasian affairs.

Source: Kommersant, No 190, October 13, 2009, p. 8