WPS Agency, Russia
October 13, 2009 Tuesday

REAPING BENEFITS OF TRUCE;
Is what Moscow is after

by: Vyascheslav Leonov

HIGHLIGHT: NOW THAT THE ARMENIAN-TURKISH BORDER TREATY IS SIGNED,
YEREVAN NEEDS THE KREMLIN’S SUPPORT; Some profound changes are in the
offing in the South Caucasus.

President Dmitry Medvedev met with his Armenian counterpart Serj
Sargsjan, yesterday. The Armenian-Turkish border opened all over again
will open a broad vista of opportunities for Russian Railways, but
there is always the danger that Turkish capitals will expand into
Armenia too and start herding Russian businesses out.

The presidents actually met but a few days ago. It happened in
Kishinev, Moldova, at the CIS summit where they and Azerbaijani leader
Ilham Aliyev discussed Nagorno-Karabakh. Armenian and Turkish foreign
ministers Edward Nalbandjan and Ahmed Davutoglu signed the protocols
to establish diplomatic relations and open the border in Geneva, the
following day. Profound changes are in the offing in the South
Caucasus, so that Moscow has to adjust its relations with Yerevan in
accordance with the new geopolitical realities. Sargsjan is going
Turkey to a football match between Armenian and Turkish national teams
tomorrow, so that a stopover in Moscow for the last minute
consultations was probably a good idea.

The expected opening of the Armenian-Turkish border offers a whole
spectrum of opportunities to Russia. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov
already called Russian Railways prepared to provide railroad service
between Armenia and Turkey. Russian Railways obtained a 30-year
concession for Armenian railroads, last year. In theory, the
Armenian-Turkish rapprochement may even make railroad service between
Armenia and Turkish ports possible at some later date.

Medvedev and Sargsjan discussed the latest developments from the
standpoint of new promising projects as well. Dmitry Abzalov, an
expert with the Center for Political Situation, suggested that a
transport corridor via Turkey might be established to allow Russia to
export oil to Armenia. Alexander Skakov of the Institute of Strategic
Studies, however, warned that Turkish capitals could be relied on to
rush to the newly opened Armenian market and start pushing Russian
businesses out.

Alexander Krylov, an expert with the Institute of Global Economy and
International Relations, said that Sargsjan needed the Kremlin’s
political support at this time. The protocols signed in Geneva had to
be ratified by the national parliaments of Armenia and Turkey yet.
Armenian nationalists in the meantime claim that Sargsjan is through
with the struggle for acknowledgment of the genocide and prepares to
abandon Nagorno-Karabakh. In fact, the opposition already promised to
ruin ratification. "Should ratification necessitate the use of the so
called administrative resource, the Armenians might respond to it with
mass riots, and Sargsjan needs the Kremlin on its side," Krylov said.

Source: RBC Daily, No 187, October 13, 2009, p. 3