TURKEY’S NEW FOREIGN POLICY
Cuneyt Ulsever
Hurriyet Daily News
Oct 19 2009
Turkey
The "agreement protocol" signed last week between Turkey and Armenia
has presented the opportunity for an analysis. I have reached the
following conclusion:
Turkey will re-open the Armenian border. On the other side, Russia
will pressure Armenia to solve the "Karabakh issue."
All of these developments are the initial winds of change in U.S.
foreign policy under the Obama administration. Russia, being blocked
by the George Bush administration in the Black Sea through developing
relations with Ukraine and Georgia, is now regaining the sphere of
influence in the Obama period and is paving the way for the United
States to be the only active imperialist country in the Middle East
in return.
I am of the opinion that the region that the imperialists focused
over the Cold War period comes back to the global relations this time
through a partnership with Russia.
Turkey is trying to be the United States’ "Representative in the
Middle East" in this sharing.
By signing the protocol with Armenia, Turkey has helped the United
States, an ally, but has mainly left Azerbaijan to Russian influence.
***
I have written repeatedly that I am frightened by Turkey’s
multi-dimensional foreign policy, which is not directly anchored
anywhere or to any alliance. I have also said the "zero-problem with
neighbors" policy is arithmetically impossible.
What I want to say is this: You may seek "zero problems" with your
neighbors. But foreign policy is not a linear equation; it is a
complex matrix. For instance, as you reach an agreement with one of
your neighbors, you may fall into a matrix of problems between your
two neighbors.
As a matter of fact, Azerbaijan is awfully disturbed by Turkey’s
efforts to iron out problems with Armenia.
I think defending Azerbaijan’s rights and mediation between Azerbaijan
and Armenia become Russia’s responsibility.
It seems the United States is leaving its sphere of influence over
Ukraine, Georgia and Azerbaijan to Russia. Therefore, Turkey, as a
U.S. ally, should act according to this change of roles.
***
But I think Turkey is already anchored.
As I put Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, "Turkey’s political
choices and priorities fully correspond to that of Obama," since
Obama has become the new U.S. president and Davutoglu the new Turkish
foreign minister.
If Turkey is a boat, it will anchor itself to the U.S. first but its
rear will float in Middle Eastern waters.
U.S. might also try the "zero-problem" approach in the Middle East
in this period and seek "new and peaceful" attempts with Iran, Syria,
Lebanon, Hamas and Hezbollah. Turkey may help the U.S. a lot.
Northern Iraq may be completely entrusted to Turkey.
This is Turkey’s new role. Moderate Islam has come to an end. But new
ways of reconciliation with adverse Islamic countries are being sought.
Turkey will play an endless number of mediation roles between the
said countries and the U.S. in this period.
Turkey will anchor to the U.S., but we will usually see Turkey floating
in the Middle East!
As it was in the Bush period, the role Turkey is assigned and agrees
to is in the Middle East.
***
We will see how much this role is in harmony with "multi-dimensional
policy," to what extent we will go back to a "one-dimensional policy,"
which the governing Justice and Development Party, or AKP, criticizes,
how deep Turkey’s desire to become a part of modern civilization or
how well it will play the role of "new Ottoman."