NORMALIZATION OF RELATIONS WITH ANKARA THREATENS WITH YEREVAN’S NON-CONSTRUCTIVITY IN NAGORNO-KARABAKH PROBLEMS: EXPERTS
Trend
Oct 20 2009
Azerbaijan
Yerevan can hold non-constructive position in the talks over the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict de to normalization of relations with Ankara,
experts said.
"Armenia took certain coolness in relations between Baku and Ankara
as a historic chance that would allow it to suffer settlement of the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict within any pain. But Armenian politicians
miss one detail. They will fail to avoid compromise, i.e. concessions
as Baku as opposed to Yerevan is able to press on its mediators,"
Azerbaijani politician, Tofiq Abbasov, said.
"We can not speak about constructivism of the last meeting between
Azerbaijani and Armenian presidents in Chisinau," Azerbaijani Foreign
Minister Elmar Mammadyarov told Trend News on Friday.
He said that the last presidential meeting did not give ground for
optimism as the Armenian side suddenly launched discussions of the
issues have been agreed 2-3 years ago. Mammadyarov connects these
actions with the last events in the region, namely, Turkey-Armenia
rapprochement.
"The Armenian side is likely to think if this process is advanced in
this direction, it is possible to freeze the other ones," Azerbaijani
Foreign Minister said.
The meeting between Azerbaijani and Armenian Presidents Ilham Aliyev
and Serzh Sargsyan was held in Chisinau on October 9. These are the
seventh talks between the presidents to solve the Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict peacefully.
Experts said that Armenia can fully delay the process of the
Nagorno-Karabakh settlement by talking into account strong positions
in relations with Turkey.
It seems clear from the point of view of the impact of the
Armenian-Turkish diplomacy on the Karabakh issue that progress on
Karabakh is unlikely to be achieved in the short-term prospect after a
breakthrough in Armenian-Turkish relations, director of the Armenian
Center for National and International Studies, Richard Giragosian,
said.
Successful normalization of relations between Armenia and Turkey is
likely to slow down and complicate the course of the negotiation
process on Karabakh due to internal political considerations in
Armenia, he said.
If the Armenian government has an agreement with Turkey, it will be
politically harmful and even dangerous for the Armenian leadership
to seek a compromise agreement with Azerbaijan over Karabakh, and
to make concessions, such as delivery of territory and withdrawal of
Armenian troops from the regions around Karabakh. Such actions will
be too tough and too soon to be adopted by the Armenian community,"
Giragosian told Trend News via E-mail.
While signing the protocols Turkey entitled Armenia to consider
Yerevan’s positions as rather successful, MP of the Turkish Grand
National Asembly, Onur Oymen, told Trend News over phone from Ankara
on Friday.
He said that Ankara needs to add the written agreement on the
Nagorno-Karabakh settlement in the protocols.
"The events occurring now will negatively affect settlement of the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict," member of Republican People’s Party,
Oymen, said.
The normalisation of relations with Turkey has been a major victory
for the current Armenian leadership, European expert on Caucasus,
Licinia Simao, said.
"Even if there is constant opposition at home among more radical
groups, most of the population in the Armenian Republic welcomes this
change, hoping that open borders will improve life standards and
economic performance, as well as it will allow a more independent
stance, namely regarding Russia and the Diaspora," expert on South
Caucasian countries, fellow of University of Coimbra, Simao, told
Trend News via E-mail.
Therefore, on the one hand the Armenian President Sargsyan has gathered
some capital to push for compromises on the Nagorno Karabakh peace
talks, and on the other has pushed some groups to a marginal position
that could backfire, she said.
She said that it can lead to a perception that Armenia is giving in
on the two most important issues for the nation: the recognition of
the genocide by Turkey and the independence of the Nagorno Karabakh
Republic.
Regarding with normalization f relations between Yerevan and Ankara,
one should not be flattered because Armenia with its economic problems
is real burden, Azerbaijani politician Abbasov said.
Expert said that Ankara will not gain significant geopolitical and
even commercial benefits by drawing outsider of South Caucasus to
its side as an ally.
He said that only this factor testifies in favor of that Turkey will
be able to gain little from rapprochement with yesterday’s sworn
opponent .
"Reconciliation is likely to take place in the form thought by
Americans and EU. However, it will be the union as it is stated on
the principle ‘not because of but contrary to’," Abbasov said.
Armenian expert said that risk of negative impact on the
Nagorno-Karabakh process can have negative result towards normalization
of relations between Armenia and Turkey.
Specifically, in the event that the protocols fail to pass the Turkish
parliament, or if the delicate diplomacy between Armenia and Turkey
collapses, the Armenian side may be pushed into adopting a new more
assertive diplomatic position over Karabakh, Giragosian, said.
"In that case, Armenia may reassess its official policy of offering
to cede districts outside of Karabakh to Azerbaijan and may possibly
confront both the OSCE Minsk Group mediators and Azerbaijani diplomats
with a more hard-line approach toward the last remaining "frozen
conflict" of the region," he said.
Thus, the fate of the Armenian-Turkish diplomatic process may determine
the course of the mediation of the Karabakh conflict for some time
to come.
The conflict between the two South Caucasus countries began in 1988
when Armenia made territorial claims against Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan
lost all of Nagorno-Karabakh except for Shusha and Khojali in December
1991. In 1992-93, Armenian armed forces occupied Shusha, Khojali and 7
districts surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh. Azerbaijan and Armenia signed
a ceasefire in 1994. The co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group – Russia,
France, and the U.S. – are currently holding the peace negotiations.
Rufiz Hafizoglu contributed in the article.