STRATFOR REMINDS OF OCTOBER 27
October 17, 2009
Turkey, Armenia, Azerbaijan: sufficing the interests of Russia
Yesterday the famous American STRATFOR analytic center released a
material, which relates to the continuing dispute between Armenia
and Azerbaijan, internal divisions within Armenia and, of course,
Russia, which has widespread influence throughout the region. Below
is the translation of the article, which will interest many people
especially if reviewed in the context of October 27, 1999.
Turkey and Armenia reached a symbolic deal Oct. 10 toward normalizing
relations, but several important and interwoven hurdles still remain.
These include a continuing dispute between Armenia and Azerbaijan,
internal divisions within Armenia and, of course, Russia, which
has widespread influence throughout the region. Armenian President
Serzh Sargsyan met with Russian President Dmitri Medvedev Oct. 13
in Moscow and voiced his support for Russia’s contributions to
Armenia’s diplomatic efforts in the Caucasus. The Moscow meeting came
after Armenian Foreign Minister Edward Nalbandyan and his Turkish
counterpart, Ahmet Davutoglu, held a highly anticipated meeting Oct.
10 in Zurich in which two protocols were signed – one on developing
formal ties and the other on opening the border between the two
countries. The protocols must now be sent to each country’s parliament
for ratification. While the meeting between Armenia and Turkey was
certainly significant, the agreements reached were primarily symbolic
in nature; the two countries still face obstacles in completing the
normalization process. Indeed, the protocol signing came after a
meeting between Armenia and Azerbaijan collapsed just days earlier.
According to STRATFOR sources in Armenia, Turkey was not pleased
that these talks failed, with the main issue of the disputed enclave
Nagorno-Karabakh left unsettled. Azerbaijan has warned that if
Turkey agrees to a deal with Armenia without addressing the status
of Nagorno-Karabakh, it would do its best to stymie or complicate
Ankara’s normalization with Yerevan. STRATFOR sources say Turkey has
now given Armenia an ultimatum: It will not follow through on the
opening of the border between the two countries until this particular
issue is solved – protocol or not. This is quite a threat by Turkey,
and it shows that the protocols may be hollow and easily reversed. On
the Armenian side, there is an enormous level of internal displeasure
and dissent over the deal as well. Both the Armenian public and the
government are still deeply divided over a rapprochement with the
Turks, with the genocide issue still firmly in their collective minds.
Within Armenia’s parliament, two opposition parties – Heritage and
Armenian Revolutionary Federation – have already said they are against
ratifying the protocols signed with Turkey. While these parties hold
only 23 out of 121 seats in the National Assembly, STRATFOR is being
told that the Republican Party – the ruling party of President Serzh
Sargsyan that holds 64 seats – is split in half on this issue.
Sargsyan himself is devoted to seeing the normalization process
through, and because of the deep divide within his own party, this
devotion could spell trouble for the leader. The next development to
watch is whether Sargsyan will follow through with an invitation by
Turkish President Abdullah Gull to attend a symbolic soccer match in
Turkey on Oct. 14. Sargsyan had previously said he would attend the
game only if the borders between the two countries were open. Now
it appears that Sargsyan may attend anyway, even if the borders
remain closed. Such a move would be seen as quite controversial
to an Armenian public that is already deeply divided, and it could
pose a political or even security threat to Sargsyan himself. Though
Sargsyan’s control over the country is solid and he has effectively
balanced power among various groups, political dissent in parliament
and among the Armenian people has been known to play out publicly
and violently in the past. Such was the case in 1999, when a group of
armed men – allegedly angered by the corruption of the government and
the poor state of the economy – stormed parliament while it was in
session, shooting and killing the prime minister (who, incidentally,
led the same party that Sargsyan now leads) as well as several other
high-ranking government officials. STRATFOR is not suggesting that
such an event will be repeated, but Armenian politics have been known
to be volatile. As the persistent triangle of conflict between Turkey,
Armenia and Azerbaijan continues to play out, the key player to watch
is Russia. Moscow has been deeply involved in these negotiations,
with President Dmitri Medvedev overseeing the meeting between Armenia
and Azerbaijan that collapsed. More meetings between Medvedev and the
leaders of these countries are scheduled for the coming days. Russia
knows it can make or break negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan,
and it is wary of a resurgent Turkey encroaching too deeply in its
sphere of influence in the Caucasus. And of all the players in the
game, Armenia is the one over which Russia holds the most sway. While
this does not rule out the possibility of formal agreements being
reached and implemented, both between Turkey and Armenia and between
Armenia and Azerbaijan, it does mean that such agreements would need
to meet the interests of Moscow. And until Russia decides that its
interests are met, the whole process will be in limbo.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
