AZERBAIJAN PLAYING A TACTICAL GAME WITH TURKEY, SAYS AZERBAIJANI ANALYST

Tert
Oct 21 2009
Armenia

The statement Ilham Aliyev made during the government session that it’s
possible that Azerbaijan will sell gas to Russia and Iran instead of
Turkey is a bluff, said Azerbaijani political analyst Zafar Guliyev,
as reported by Azerbaijani paper Azadliq.

According to the analyst, Azerbaijan, in this way, expresses its
concern with the Armenian-Turkish process as well as with the
inefficiency of the meeting in Chisinau on the settlement of the
Nagorno-Karabakh issue.

"Turkey has always wished to make Azerbaijan understand that the
parliament will not ratify the Protocols and the border with Armenia
will not be opened unless there is progress in the Karabakh issue."

Guliyev thinks Azerbaijan’s intentions to change its energy policy
are dangerous.

"Raising the price of gas to Turkey or selling gas to Russia or Iran,
in my opinion, are means to exert pressure. It must be perceived as
a tactical game. It is possible to perceive elements of pressure
in any game. If, as an outcome of this game, Azerbaijan wishes to
bring back the relations with Turkey it had before, one can understand
Azerbaijan. Though, if in this game, Azerbaijan is pursuing other aims
and it really wishes to vitalize cooperation with Russia and Iran,
then that’s full of risks. Such a sharp and serious change in energy
policy is very dangerous for a small country like Azerbaijan. For
that reason, I think they might be bluffing, and all that, really,
seems to be about pressure."

According to Guliyev, Turkey understood that the Armenian-Turkish
process must not allow for anxiety, and Turkey will discuss the new
tariffs on gas in the near future. So, Azerbaijan must wait and adhere
to its duties.

Another Azerbaijani political analyst, Zardusht Alizadeh, believes
Azerbaijan’s wish to sell gas to Russia and Iran is normal. "If the
West wishes to buy gas on fair terms, then for the sake of fairness
it must stop its political and financial support to Armenia. The
west thinks that Azerbaijan spends the income incurred from gas on
ammunition and it, in its turn, provides political and financial
support to Armenia. It’s unfair."

Alizadeh approves Azerbaijan’s position. "Azerbaijan can sell its
gas to Russia, since we have a border with this country. In this case
Azerbaijan will benefit materially more. Why should we sell our gas
to Europe, which supports our enemy having occupied our territories,"
Azadlig newspaper quotes Alizade’s words.