AZERBAIJAN SEEKS TO DERAIL TURKEY-ARMENIA DEAL
Emil Guliyev

Agence France Presse
Oct 19 2009

Azerbaijan is stepping up efforts to derail reconciliation between
ally Turkey and arch-foe Armenia after threatening to reroute gas
supplies to Europe running through Turkey.

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev on Friday said Turkish terms for
buying Azerbaijani gas were unacceptable and that Baku is considering
other routes for shipping its gas to Europe.

The statement came amid deep Azerbaijani anger at a thaw in
Turkish-Armenian relations and prompted Turkish Foreign Minister
Ahmet Davutoglu to assure Ankara that its close support for Baku
remained unchanged.

"Azerbaijan has been selling its natural gas to Turkey at a level that
is one third of the world price. What country in the world would agree
to sell its natural resources at 30 percent of world prices?" Aliyev
told a government meeting.

"Of course under such conditions, we have to explore alternatives,"
he said, adding that Azerbaijan could look to increase gas supplies
through Russia or Iran.

Analysts said Aliyev’s remarks were a shot across Turkey’s bow after
it signed a deal with Armenia this month to establish diplomatic ties
and reopen their border following decades of hostility.

Baku is bristling that Ankara is moving forward with the deal, which
must still be ratified by the Armenian and Turkish parliaments,
and accused Turkey of betraying its interests.

Ankara sealed its border with Armenia in 1993 in a show of solidarity
with Baku after ethnic Armenian separatists, backed by Yerevan,
seized the Nagorny Karabakh region and seven surrounding districts
from Azerbaijan in a war that claimed an estimated 30,000 lives.

"Azerbaijan feels personally betrayed by Turkey to some extent," said
Ana Jelenkovic, a London-based Caucasus expert with the Eurasia Group.

"They are feeling very threatened and are taking steps to make it
overtly obvious to Turkey where they stand."

Azerbaijani political analyst Rasim Musabekov said the Turkey-Armenia
thaw has brought longstanding Azerbaijani concerns over gas prices
to the surface.

"Turkey’s ignoring of Azerbaijan’s national interests in its approach
with Armenia has made Baku reconsider Turkey’s selfish approach to
gas prices," he said.

"Where previously Azerbaijan could justify the very low prices because
of brotherly relations with Turkey, now Baku is speaking solely in
the language of business," he said.

In response, Davutoglu declared that "Azeri soil is as sacred for
us as our own" and Turkey would offer unstinting support for Baku in
the Karabakh conflict.

Commenting on Aliyev’s remarks on gas, Davutoglu added: "The
negotiations are continuing… I believe we will reach a positive
outcome."

Azerbaijan is the starting point for a key corridor of oil and gas
pipelines from the Caspian Sea through Georgia and Turkey to Europe.

It is also seen as a key potential supplier for the European Union’s
ambitious Nabucco pipeline project, aimed at cutting Europe’s reliance
on gas supplies through Russia and Ukraine.

Jelenkovic said the threat to pursue alternative routes is also
aimed at Western countries, which have pushed hard for reconciliation
between Armenia and Turkey.

"They are making it very clear to Europe what this might mean,
because Europe would certainly prefer not to have those supplies
routed through Russia," she said.

Tentative steps have already been taken with Moscow and last week
the Azerbaijani and Russian state energy firms signed a deal to start
gas flowing to Russia as of next year.

Azerbaijan is limited in how far it can push Turkey, as there is not
enough infrastructure for major gas supplies through other countries
such as Russia But emotions in Baku are running high.

"We can say that we are now at the lowest point in relations between
Turkey and Azerbaijan," said Baku-based analyst Ilgar Mamedov.