EUROPE WILL NOT FORGIVE ALIYEV FOR FRUSTRATION OF THEIR SOUTH CAUCASUS PLANS

PanARMENIAN.Net
20.10.2009 GMT+04:00

Big game initiated in the region; everyone is eager to get the maximum
but come up with minimum losses.

After the signing of the Armenian-Turkish Protocols Ilham Aliyev
left for Switzerland, which was a landmark event for the progress of
the situation in the region since October 10. Hardly is it possible
that the President of Azerbaijan should have left for Switzerland to
"open the Week of Azerbaijani culture", the official statement said.

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ Switzerland, as a mediator in various negotiations,
has earned fame and prestige. It was so at the end of the World War
II, and it is so now when the security of the Euro-Atlantic region
and, in particular, Europe’s plans in the Caucasus are on stake. The
stakes are too high to allow Armenia, Azerbaijan and even Turkey
to play first fiddle in this game. In all probability, the visit
is firstly dictated by Baku’s need to finally define her position
and, secondly, Europe itself is eager to ascertain the views of
Baku on the Armenian-Turkish relations and on the settlement of the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Moreover, it is presumed that a certain
verbal agreement on the two most pressing problems in the region
already exists and the parties can simply be put before a fact,
after trying to negotiate "amicably". The reasons for this "hasty"
visit can be interchanged as the core is the following: the OSCE Minsk
Group co-chair countries, which were standing behind Nalbandyan and
Davutoglu during the ceremony of signing the Protocols, are eager
to identify Azerbaijan’s impending steps, especially in regard to
the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. And when the steps
are identified, Europe will start using levers of pressure to force
Baku to make a decision that is acceptable for Europe and the United
States. This pertains not only to Azerbaijan, but also to Armenia.

Simply Azerbaijan is rich in hydrocarbons and allows herself to gamble
on this, thus showing incompliance not only towards Armenia, but also
towards the powerful states. This could work only until the world
community was interested in the rapid settlement of the Karabakh
conflict. And today, when the emphasis has shifted to the speedy
solution of the fundamental conflicts which hamper the realization
of global economic projects, the pressure can be tough and unpleasant.

Trying to estimate the situation, we can say that levers of pressure
are applied on Armenia too, the most important of them being on the
internal political situation in the country and the threat to change
the format of the negotiation process on Karabakh, transferring it to
the UN Security Council, whose sanctions may be compulsory. The worst
thing that can await Armenia is the phased regulation of the conflict.

In any case, the problem is being solved or it is already solved on
the level of verbal agreements, while the writing is still taking
shape and is perceived as a phased solution to the problem.

As for Azerbaijan, the pressure will go through "voluntary-compulsory
participation" in oil and gas projects, in which she is highly
interested. If Aliyev disagrees with Europe, there will be applied some
more powerful levers, although for the ruling clan in Azerbaijan the
control over the energy resources is the strongest argument in favor
of any decision. Now one of the priorities for Europe and also for the
USA is Nabucco, whose realization is totally intolerable for Russia. If
everything goes well, the success of Nabucco could become a yardstick
for all other projects. But it would be useful for Ilham Aliyev to
realize that Europe will never forgive Azerbaijan for frustration of
the projects that can put an end to Russia’s hegemony in the Caucasus,
for which, in all probability, the Azerbaijani President was invited
to Zurich.

Against the background of current happenings quite lightly sound
the statements of some Turkish politicians on the possible holdup of
ratification of the Protocols. Quite strange are also the statements
of Prime Minister Erdogan and Foreign Minister Davutoglu, who claim
that "Turkey will never deliver a blow on the brotherly Azerbaijan"
by opening its border with Armenia. These are just words that seem
unfounded both to Baku and to the world community. There exist some
time limits for ratification: two months to which both Armenia and
Turkey have to confine themselves, no matter what it costs them.

Otherwise they will be penalized. The question is how long this
rhetoric is going to continue; the rhetoric that might end as
disgracefully as Aliyev’s constant threat to "return the lands". As
we have already mentioned, the most Azerbaijan can expect now is
the return of the two districts, about which last year spoke Leyla
Aliyeva, a political scientist and the President’s daughter. At least
she knows what she says.

Big game has initiated in the region; everyone is eager to get the
maximum but come up with minimum losses. It is especially now that
Armenian diplomacy should be ready for all calls hotly discussed since
the beginning of the year, to minimize losses and enhance the status
of the country on the international arena as a flexible partner,
who is open to dialogue.