THE JAPAN TIMES
October 20, 2009, Tuesday
Japan
Armenia and Turkey took important steps toward overcoming a long
bitter history this month. The two governments’ agreement to
establish diplomatic ties will help reduce the enmity that has
dominated their relationship for nearly a century. It could also
help transform relations in southeastern Europe as well as improve
Turkey’s relations with the European Union.
That is, of course, only the potential.
The ill will that prevails in relations between Armenia and Turkey will
take generations to erase, and could be rekindled without much effort.
Armenia and Turkey disagree bitterly over events that began in 1915. A
wave of violence swept across Turkey, causing the deaths of hundreds
of thousands of ethnic Armenians. The Armenian community, along with
many historians, believe the deaths were the result of genocide –
a deliberate policy of the Ankara government to cleanse the Ottoman
Empire of minorities. The Turkish government has long maintained
that it was not at fault. It has insisted that people died either as
a result of deportation or relocation, or because of the civil war
that was being waged against the Ottoman Empire.
Regardless of the explanation, Ankara argues that the death count
has been exaggerated, the killings were not deliberate and the word
genocide cannot be applied to "the events of 1915."
The disagreement poisons relations between the neighbors to this day.
While Turkey recognized Armenia when it gained independence from
the Soviet Union in 1991, the genocide allegation prevented the two
governments from establishing full diplomatic relations.
The relationship suffered another setback two years later, when
Turkey closed the border with Armenia in retaliation for Armenia’s
support for separatists in the region of Nagorno-Karabakh, an ethnic
Armenian enclave that broke away from Azerbaijan during a civil war
that claimed 30,000 lives. In 1994, Armenia occupied the area and
the situation remains deadlocked to this day.
Despite divergent interpretations of history, the two governments
have tried to improve relations. For the past two years, Switzerland
has mediated negotiations, with additional help from other concerned
governments, particularly Russia and France. The United States has
taken an interest in the talks as well, with Secretary of State Hillary
Rodham Clinton playing a key role in bringing the two sides together.
Those efforts paid off Oct. 10, when the foreign ministers of Armenia
and Turkey signed an agreement to establish diplomatic relations,
open the border between Turkey and Armenia that has been closed
since 1993, and establish committees to work on economic affairs,
the environment and other bilateral issues.
While there is no mention of the genocide controversy – a group of
historical experts will study the question – the prospect of its
mention almost derailed the signing. Just before the ceremony, Mrs.
Clinton brokered a deal between the two sides in a hotel parking lot.
Several hours of discussion yielded an agreement in which neither
side would make a statement at the signing. While such sensitivity
at this stage hardly augurs well for the relationship, the fact that
the two governments instead focused on the need to move forward is
a hopeful sign.
Obstacles remain. The agreement does not go into effect until after
it has been ratified by both countries’ parliaments. Nationalists in
both countries vehemently oppose the deal, and Azerbaijan has reacted
with dismay to the agreement. Its foreign ministry complained that
"the normalization of relations between Turkey and Armenia before the
withdrawal of Armenian forces from occupied Azerbaijan . . . casts
a shadow over the spirit of brotherly relations between Azerbaijan
and Turkey."
Turkish officials have insisted that Armenian concessions are
necessary if Ankara is going to ratify the deal. While concessions
appear unlikely, there are indications of progress in talks between
Armenia and Azerbaijan. In short, delay is likely, but most observers
believe it will be months, rather than years.
Benefits of the accord provide considerable impetus for the two sides
to push ahead. Open borders should spur trade for the two economies. A
more peaceful region, along with open borders, also makes possible
new pipelines that could reshape oil markets. These pipelines would
transit southeastern Europe, reducing Europe’s dependence on Russian
oil. Turkey would get dividends from those pipelines, too, as they
would transit its territory.
Even more important, the settling of the dispute with Armenia has
cast Ankara as a forward-looking and progressive government. This
image will be increasingly important as Turkey’s negotiations with
the EU progress. Ankara needs to eliminate all potential obstacles
to its membership in the union. A deal with Armenia helps.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
