TURKEY’S TALKS WITH ARMENIA TEST TIES WITH GAS-SUPPLIER AZERBAIJAN
By Yigal Schliefer
Christian Science Monitor
woeu.html
Oct 23 2009
In Azerbaijan, Turkish flags have been taken down and the Azeri
president said his country might stop selling Ankara discounted
natural gas. At issue is Turkey’s move to renew relations with Armenia,
which has a territorial dispute with Azerbaijan.
Print this Buzz up!Email and shareRepublish E-mail newsletters RSS
Istanbul, Turkey – Bound together by language and culture – and, more
recently, by oil and gas pipelines – officials in Turkey and Azerbaijan
frequently refer to the two countries as "one nation, two states."
But this slogan is being put to the test these days, following Turkey
and Armenia’s recent signing of protocols to restore diplomatic
relations and open up their borders. That’s something Azerbaijan
is strongly opposed to, in the wake of the deal with Armenia that
doesn’t address a territorial dispute between Azberbaijan and Armenia.
The new tension between Ankara and Baku is raising concern that the
Azeris – who sit on top of large reserves of oil and gas – might
scuttle energy deals that involve Turkey, especially the Nabucco
pipeline project, designed to ease Europe’s dependence on Russian
natural gas.
As Turkey tries to deal with one of its historic problems in order
to improve relations with a neighbor, it appears other historic
problems are creating new tension with another neighbor, with possible
consequences for European energy security.
"If those countries which are genuinely interested in the Nabucco
project influence Armenia so that it steps back from the occupied
territories and both Azerbaijan and Turkey will be satisfied, then this
will be remembered as only an episode in Turkey-Azerbaijan relations,"
says Ilgar Mammadov, a political analyst based in Baku.
"If not, then the relationship between Turkey and Azerbaijan will
worsen, and projects like Nabucco will be undermined."
The protocols make no mention of Nagorno-Karabakh, a mountainous Azeri
territory occupied by Armenian forces since 1994. Turkey first closed
its border to Armenia in response to its occupation of the territory
and Azeri officials have said Ankara’s relations with Yerevan should
not be restored until the frozen Nagorno-Karabakh issue is settled.
Baku feels betrayed
The reaction in Baku to the deal signed by Turkey and Armenia – which
must still be ratified by the two countries’ parliaments to take
effect – has been particularly strong. Turkish flags have been taken
down in the city and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, speaking
at a nationally televised cabinet meeting on Oct. 16, suggested his
country might stop selling Turkey natural gas at a discounted price.
"Azerbaijan is looking at the opening of the Turkey-Armenia border
as a betrayal. We are looking at Turkey as our main partner in the
region and [at] Armenia as our main enemy. The reaction is natural,"
says Vafa Guluzade, former foreign affairs advisor to the previous
Azeri president, Haydar Aliyev.
Turkish officials have been making efforts to appease Baku, making it
clear that they will not move forward on renewing ties with Armenia
until the Nagorno-Karabakh issue is resolved.
"Nothing can change the fact that Turkey will always stand by
Azerbaijan and Turkey’s position on Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity
and its territories under occupation," Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet
Davutoglu said during a Thursday visit to the Azeri capital.
But Guluzade, the former Azeri foreign affairs adviser, says Baku is
looking for stronger reassurances.
"We need something more real in our hands. Armenia has signed protocols
under the auspices of the United States, Russia, and France.
We only have words. That’s not enough," he says.
However, Huseyin Bagci, a professor of international relations at
Ankara’s Middle East Technical University, says that in the long run,
the opening of the Turkey-Armenia border will actually facilitate
the resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh issue.
"Azerbaijan has to realize that discussion of the Nagorno-Karabakh
issue can only happen if the Turkey-Armenia border opens," he says.
In the meantime, without a resolution to the conflict between
Azerbaijan and Armenia, Ankara and Baku may find the "one nation-two
states" slogan being further tested, Bagci says.
"It’s a nationalist slogan, it’s nice to hear, but it’s never been
the case," he says. "We have never been one nation."
—
What are Turkey and Armenia doing to get past decades of hostility?