Hurriyet Daily News, Turkey
Oct 25 2009

Obama invitation indicates serious agenda

Sunday, October 25, 2009
BARÃ?IN Y°NANÃ?
ISTANBUL ` Hürriyet Daily News

Although the US views Turkey’s recent closeness with Iraq and Syria
positively, the issue of Iran and its nuclear potential may cause
disagreements between Turkey and the Obama administration, say
experts. These issues, as well as the recent strides taken between
Turkey and Armenia, are likely to top the agenda during Erdo?an’s
upcoming visit to Washington

Three experts on Turkish-U.S. relations said Turkey’s fast-growing
relations with Iraq and Syria were viewed positively by Washington,
yet Iran and its nuclear program have the potential of being a point
of contention between the ruling party and the Obama administration.

The Turkish-Armenian reconciliation process will also rank high on the
agenda during the Turkish prime minister’s upcoming visit to the
United States, as the latter will encourage Turkey to continue the
process despite a negative reaction from Azerbaijan, the experts said.

U.S. officials contacted Ankara on Oct. 15 to arrange a visit from
Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdo?an to Washington on Oct. 29
for talks with President Barack Obama. But the invitation ` already on
short notice ` coincided with a Turkish national holiday. Erdo?an’s
visit will take place at a later date.

Azerbaijan’s reaction to the Turkish-Armenian reconciliation process
and the deterioration of relations between Israel and Turkey have led
to a sense in the Obama administration that there is a need for
high-level consultation, according to Stephen Larrabee of the RAND
Corporation.

`I suspect that there is a strong feeling that some issues need to be
hammered out between Obama and Erdo?an. The Turkish prime minister was
supposed to go to Washington in December. But too much is happening to
wait until December,’ Larrabee told the Hürriyet Daily News & Economic
Review last week, when asked about the reason behind the short-notice
invitation.

The existence of a serious agenda, rather than a sense of urgency, is
behind the invitation, said Ian Lesser of the German Marshall Fund.

Turkish-Armenian reconciliation will be one of the most important
topics to be discussed, as the Obama administration will extend its
genuine offer to help continue the process, Lesser said in an
interview last week with the Daily News.

Turkey and Armenia have recently signed protocols that will pave the
way to normalize relations. The protocols need to be ratified in both
countries’ parliaments.

`To capture the full benefit we have to see the practical
implementation, like the ratification of the protocols and opening of
the borders,’ said Lesser. As for the reaction of Azerbaijan, which
relies on Turkish support to solve the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute with
Armenia, Lesser said the United States understands Turkey’s
difficulties. `We hope Turkey won’t wait for the complete resolution
of the problem before moving ahead,’ said Lesser.

`Obama will want to make sure that the international group that has
been working to solve the Nagorno-Karabakh issue is actively engaged
to move forward on the Armenian-occupied Azerbaijani territories
surrounding Karabakh,’ said Henri Barkey from the Carnegie Endowment.
`I presume he will also want to know if there are any side deals
between Russian Prime Minister Putin and Erdo?an that could make the
Karabakh process move and help the ratification of the protocols.’

Turkey’s relations with Syria compatible with US policy

Middle East issues are also expected to rank high on the list of
Erdo?an’s discussion points with Obama, as the officials of both sides
continue working to agree on a date.

`Turkey’s close relations with Syria can be useful to the United
States if there is close coordination and consultation about it,’ said
Larrabee. `There is a change of position from the Bush administration,
which was much more skeptical of dialogue with Syria.

`The fact that President Obama wants to establish dialogue with Syria
puts U.S. and Turkish policy much more in alignment,’ Larrabee added.
Lesser agreed that Turkey’s relations with Syria are not necessarily
incompatible with U.S. policy. `Everyone is opening with Syria. Turkey
is going faster, but this is not a concern,’ he said.

Meanwhile, both Larrabee and Lesser agreed that Iran is a potential
source of disagreement between Ankara and Washington. `For the U.S.
administration, the nuclear issue is very important, whereas economic
relations and cooperation on regional issues are more important for
Turkey ` we understand that,’ Lesser said.

The Obama administration is very serious about opening a dialogue with
Iran, according to Lesser, yet if it does not see progress on the
nuclear issue, the U.S. might become significantly tougher on Iran.

In the absence of progress, Obama will be pressured to impose harsher
sanctions on Iran, said Larrabee. `But Erdo?an seems opposed to
sanctions. If Turkey will not go along with the imposition of
sanctions, it will have negative consequences in it relations with
Europe and the U.S.,’ he said.

`The U.S. will expect Turkey to deliver tough messages to Tehran when
the Turks meet Iranian leaders,’ said Lesser.

Barkey had a similar view. Obama does not want Turkey to be conveying
a message to Iran that suggests Erdo?an has Iran’s back, Barkey said.
The administration might also be worried about Turkey-Iran relations
due to Turkey’s role on the U.N. Security Council, amid concerns over
whether Turkey will vote against or abstain from a potential
confrontation with Iran over sanctions, he said.