ARMENIA MAY WAIT FOR TURKS TO VOTE ON BORDER ACCORD
By Helena Bedwell

Bloomberg
ews?pid=20601085&sid=agtGJy2n0uvs
Oct 27 2009

Oct. 27 (Bloomberg) — Armenian lawmakers may delay voting on a
treaty that would open the border with Turkey and boost the former
Soviet republic’s economy until the Turkish parliament has considered
the measure.

Armenia will probably wait for Turkey to act on the treaty, said
Nairi Petrosyan, a spokesman for the parliament in Yerevan. The
Turkish government submitted the agreement to parliament last week,
though no date has been set for a ratification vote.

The two nations agreed on Oct. 10 to reestablish ties and open their
border within two months of ratification. Relations have been frozen
since Turkey closed the border in 1993 to protest Armenia’s occupation
of the Nagorno-Karabakh region in Azerbaijan, a key Turkish ally and
energy supplier. Many Armenians are concerned the treaty could lead
to compromise on Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia’s demand that Turkey
recognize the World War I massacre of Armenians in Ottoman Turkey
as genocide.

"The Armenian public is confused because of a lack of information,"
Richard Giragosian, director of the Armenian Center for National and
International Studies, said by telephone from Yerevan yesterday. "The
vast majority supports opening the border and normalizing relations,
but the question is at what price? What we’re seeing is a rather
mistaken trade-off."

The government of Armenia, a landlocked country of 3.2 million people,
estimates opening the border will increase foreign investment by
50 percent.

‘Real Test’

"I don’t see any real problems on passage in the Armenian parliament,"
Giragosian said. "The real test will come from the Turkish side."

Armenia’s diaspora, estimated at 6 million people, greeted President
Serzh Sargsyan with protests in Los Angeles, Beirut and Paris as he
toured the world this month to gain support for the plan.

Giragosian said Turkish lawmakers are likely to postpone a vote until
next February or March to coincide with the 95th anniversary of the
World War I massacre. "Turkey is trying to maximize the political
benefits," he said.

Turkey hopes that normalized ties with Armenia will assuage European
Union opponents of Turkish membership.

Mikheil Saakashvili, president of Georgia, which shares borders with
both Turkey and Armenia, welcomed the agreement.

‘Northern Neighbor’

"We don’t need any isolated neighbors in the region and opening up
would be good," he said in an interview last week, adding that he
also hopes to see progress between Armenia and Azerbaijan. "Overall
I think these regions will be less susceptible to manipulations from
the northern neighbor," he said, referring to Russia.

Armenia’s government forecasts an economic contraction this year of
as much as 15 percent, followed by 1 percent growth in 2010, Economic
Development Minster Nerses Yeritsyan said in an interview. Opening
the border would have "enormous benefits" for Armenia, he said.

"Turkey is a member of the World Trade Organization and would provide
Armenia with access to markets," Yeritsyan said. "Investment will
also increase about 50 percent. We used to get $1 billion a year,
but that fell significantly this year because of the global crisis."

Trade with Turkey would "definitely add a few percentage points to the
growth of Armenia’s economy," Arsen Ghazaryan, head of the country’s
Union of Manufacturers and Businessmen, said by telephone.

Brandy, Electricity

Armenia would find markets in Turkey for its agricultural products,
especially in border areas, as well as for its brandy in Turkish
tourist havens, Ghazaryan said. Imports would include construction
materials and electricity, he said.

For Karyna Petrosyan, opening the border would mean a return to work
after 16 years of waiting. The 45-year-old railway guard has reported
for duty every day, in uniform, at the station in the village of
Gharibjanian since the closure of the border a few kilometers away.

"We’re looking forward to a thaw in relations with Turkey because
the area would thrive again and the station will open," Petrosyan said.

"It will create jobs and give us something to do." The state still
pays Petrosyan’s salary for maintaining the station though no trains
have arrived since 1993.

In the nearby town of Gyumri, city leaders have been "aggressive
advocates" of opening the border, Lilit Aghekian, a spokeswoman for
the town’s mayor, said in an interview. "But there’s no way Armenia
should compromise on Nagorno-Karabakh or the genocide. No trading is
possible on these issues."

Massacres

In the Oct. 10 agreement, Turkey and Armenia pledged to set up a joint
commission of historians to investigate the World War I massacres,
recognized by France and other countries as genocide. Armenia says as
many as 1.5 million were systematically killed. Turkey cites a lower
figure and says the deaths were the result of civil strife in which
many Turks were also killed.

Armenia’s political opposition has criticized the government for
moving too fast to repair relations with Turkey before first resolving
the disputes.

"The opposition has never said we don’t want normalized ties," Arman
Mysinian, a leader of the opposition National Congress of Armenia,
said in an interview. "But the genocide and Karabakh shouldn’t have
been included in the foreign-policy agenda."

Samvel Farmanyan, a spokesman for Sargsyan, said the agreement
doesn’t call into question the legitimacy of Armenia’s position on
the massacres or Nagorno-Karabakh, and the government will never
compromise.

In the markets of Yerevan, some vendors say the agreement would change
little for Armenians who import goods through neighboring Georgia.

"Nothing will change," Zaven Khachatryan, a market vendor, said. "Why?

The government will slap big customs duties on everything that crosses
the border and the end result will be the same as it is now."

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress