CHIEF GOAL OF TURKISH, ARMENIAN LEADERS WAS NOT OPENING OF BORDER: RUSSIAN EXPERT
Today
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Oct 28 2009
Azerbaijan
"Turkish and Armenian parliaments are unlikely to ratify the protocols
as the sides have not reached a mutually satisfactory solution to
the Nagorno Karabakh problem and problem of Turkey’s recognition
of the "Armenian genocide", research fellow at the Russian Academy
of Sciences Institute of World Economy and International Relations
Alexander Krilov said.
"Actually, these problems could be solved, but that was not achieved
in process of negotiation. This gives grounds to conclude that the
main purpose of the Turkish and Armenian leaders was not opening of
border. It is important for Turkey to demonstrate its willingness to
compromise in the terms of plans for EU accession.
"It is equally important that Ankara had an opportunity to improve
the rather strained relations with the United States. Ankara has
an important service to the new U.S. administration, giving it a
welcome excuse to abandon its election campaign promises to officially
recognize the "Armenian genocide" as such a move could complicate
supposedly swift opening of the Armenian-Turkish border. For Armenia
it is also important to show the EU its willingness to compromise in
order to develop relations with the EU," Krilov said.
"Most likely, Turkish and Armenian leaders are quite satisfied with
the benefits from their diplomatic activity and will not "press" the
agreement through parliament, since it implies too big challenges for
them. Most likely, they will try to present failure of ratification
of the agreement as evidence of high level development of democracy
and express a firm intention to continue the peace process, which
can take a very long time," Krilov said.
Krilov also believes that "similar diplomatic games" have little
effect on resolving the Armenia-Azerbaijan Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
"The sides (Armenia and Turkey) are engaged not in resolution of
this conflict and not a solution to the problem related to Turkey’s
recognition of "genocide", but solution of entirely different
problems. Solution of the Karabakh problem requires certain conditions:
to normalize socio-economic life, a tremendous job to prepare the
sides (elite and population) to compromise, to create an atmosphere
of mutual tolerance and trust."
"This will require long years, large financial resources and active
work of the conflicting parties, international organizations and most
influential states. A peaceful solution could not be simpler and
faster. There will be no real ground to solve the Karabakh problem
as long as all parties do not realize it. Attempts to bring swift
and radical solution to the problem by force could lead to quite
disastrous consequences as in case of Georgia."
"I think Armenia will make no concessions to Azerbaijan, without
real progress in the peace process and without the presence of firm
security guarantees. More likely, the conflict will remain frozen as
all parties involved are not laying groundwork for an integrated and
comprehensive solution, but solving their own problems," he said.
"It is clear that such state of affairs may not cause delight
Azerbaijan and Armenia. But it is still more preferable than an shift
of the conflict to a hot phase. While this has not happened the parties
still have an opportunity to start a very difficult job to create a
basis for a compromise solution to the problem," the expert said.