TENSIONS BETWEEN TURKEY AND THE WEST
By Dan Bilefsky

New York Times
pe/28turkey.html
Oct 27 2009

ISTANBUL — With Turkey’s prospects for joining the European Union
growing more elusive and the country reaching out to predominantly
Muslim countries with a vigor not seen in years, a longstanding
question is vexing the United States and Europe: Is this large,
secular Muslim country turning East instead of West?

When President Obama visited Turkey in April — a symbolic gesture
that underlined Turkey’s geostrategic importance — he emphasized the
country’s role as a bridge between East and West, acknowledged its
mediation in the Arab-Israeli conflict and threw his weight solidly
behind Turkey becoming a European Union member.

Now, six months later, some in Washington and Brussels are questioning
Turkey’s dependability as an ally, and many Turks are asking whether
they should reject the European Union before the bloc rejects them.

Fears that Turkey is abandoning its bridge-building role were fanned
this month when it canceled air force exercises with Israel, straining
ties that frayed in January when Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan
castigated Israel’s president, Shimon Peres, over the war in Gaza,
in front of world leaders at Davos, Switzerland.

Senior Turkish officials say Mr. Erdogan, who was mediating between
Israel and Syria just weeks before the conflict in Gaza broke out,
felt personally betrayed by Israel’s aggression and what he regarded
as the needless killing of innocent Muslims.

At the same time, some Western diplomats say, Turkey has made what
they consider alarming overtures toward Iran.

When the official result of Iran’s disputed presidential election
was announced in June, Turkey was one of the first countries to
congratulate President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on his re-election. On
Tuesday, during a visit to Tehran, Mr. Erdogan said the West was
applying a double standard in pressuring Iran over its nuclear
program. "Those who are chanting for global nuclear disarmament should
first start in their own countries," he said.

President Nicolas Sarkozy of France has vociferously opposed European
Union membership for Turkey, arguing that it is not geographically part
of Europe. Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany has expressed similar
reservations. Many Turks have interpreted the rejection to mean that
their country is not welcome because of its large Muslim population.

At a meeting in Istanbul last week about Turkey’s relations with
its neighbors, Representative Robert Wexler, chairman of the European
subcommittee in Congress, said: "You wonder why Turkey is curious about
different avenues? Look at your own behavior and attitude, Europe."

Other analysts say that cultural and economic factors are also pushing
Turkey in that direction.

Ersin Kalaycioglu, a political science professor at Sabanci University,
noted that the global financial crisis had contracted European
economies, prompting Turkey, a large exporter, to seek different
markets. He and others also suggested that leaders of the governing
Justice and Development Party, or A.K.P., a socially conservative
party with Muslim roots, felt more at home in Riyadh, Damascus and
Baghdad than in Paris, London or Rome.

Even a partial collapse of talks with the European Union would have
far-reaching consequences. Turkey is an indispensable ally for the
United States and Europe. Bordered by Iran, Iraq and Syria, Turkey is
a powerful symbol of the compatibility of democracy, capitalism and
Islam. Located between the Middle East and the former Soviet Union,
it has vital strategic importance as a transit country for gas. It
also has deep influence in Afghanistan and is a regional leader in
the Caucasus.

Yet the country’s European Union negotiations are in a precarious
state. Negotiations on a number of issues have been blocked because of
its long dispute with Cyprus. For the first time in years, leading
figures in the business establishment, which has always led the
drive for European Union integration, are questioning the wisdom of
continuing a negotiating process that appears to have no end.

"We Turks are a proud nation and we don’t want to go to a house where
we were invited but where the host keeps slamming the door in our
face," said Hasan Arat, an executive at a top Turkish real estate
development firm.

For all the country’s wounded pride, Turkish officials and analysts
insist that Turkey has no intention of abandoning the West. Rather
than reorienting Turkish foreign policy toward the East, Egemen Bagis,
Turkey’s minister for European Union affairs, argued in an interview
that the recent outreach to its neighbors — including the opening
of its border with Syria, the signing of a historic agreement with
Armenia to establish normal diplomatic relations and the engagement
of Iran — was helping Turkey become a more effective interlocutor
for its Western allies.

"Any bridge with one strong leg and one weak leg can’t stand for long,"
Mr. Bagis said.

Ibrahim Kalin, chief foreign policy adviser to Mr. Erdogan, said
Western critics of Turkey’s new inclusive foreign policy were using a
double standard. "When the U.S. makes an overture to Russia, everyone
applauds this as a new era in diplomacy," he said. "But when Turkey
tries to reach out to Iran, people ask if it is trying to change
its axis."

Mr. Kalin said that the anti-Turkish talk emanating from key European
capitals was making it harder to convince the Turkish people about
the need for European Union membership.

Rather than worrying that Turkey is moving toward the East, said
Cengiz Aktar, a leading expert here on the European Union, the West
should fear a wounded Turkey turning to Russia. Already, Russia has
been courting it as a distribution point for energy supplies, while
Turkish investment in Russia is intensifying.

"This government is perfectly capable of saying ‘no thanks’ to Europe
and instead shifting toward Russia," Mr. Aktar said.