WHICH WAY WILL TURKEY TURN, EAST OR WEST?

Deutsche Welle
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Oct 28 2009
Germany

Turkey makes no bones about its aspirations to act as a bridge
between East and West, but a string of recent events have left the
West wondering how stable any such construction might be.

The problems began earlier this year when Turkish Prime Minister
Recep Tayyip Erdogan stormed out of a panel discussion in Davos over
the Israeli offensive in Gaza. Since then Isreali-Turkish relations,
traditionally very strong, have been on a steady downward curve which
culminated in Ankara excluding Israel from a recent NATO exercise.

Then this week, ahead of a two-day visit to Iran, Erdogan dismissed
Western worries over Teheran’s controversial nuclear program as
‘gossip’ and accused the perpetrators of hypocrisy.

"Although Iran doesn’t have a weapon, those who say Iran shouldn’t
have them are those countries which do," Erdogan told Britain’s
Guardian newspaper.

His comments were welcomed by Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad,
who called on his neighbor to strengthen existing bi-lateral ties.

"Iran-Turkey cooperation would benefit both countries, the region and
the whole world," state broadcaster IRIB quoted Ahmadinejad as saying.

Good local relations

But is that the kind of partnerhsip into which Erdogan wishes to
enter? Guelay Kizilocak, deputy chairwoman of Germany’s Center for
Studies on Turkey, says the picture is much broader.

"Turkey wants to have its say in the Middle East," she told Deutsche
Welle. "And in order to help shape the region, it wants to improve
relations with all those countries in it."

Indeed, Ankara’s ‘zero problems with neighbors’ policy of the past few
years has resulted in the abolition of visa requirements for Syria,
a breakthrough in the country’s difficult relations with Armenia and
closer ties with Teheran.

"Iran is part of the overall package," Kizilocak stressed. "It is an
important country in the region, so if Turkey wants relations with
Syria and Iraq, it has to have them with Iran as well."

Protecting its own interests

Cemal Karakas, a Turkey expert with the Peace Research Institute in
Frankfurt says Ankara has been trying to enhance its profile in the
Middle East for some time.

"Turkey is no longer a neutral observer in the region, sticking rigidly
to the NATO doctrine," he told Deutsche Welle. "It’s foreign policy
is more active and has Turkey’s interests at heart."

And one of those is fuel. Turkey is a poor country and relies heavily
not only on Azerbaijan but Iran for energy supplies.

In pursuing it own interests, however, Turkey does not necessarily walk
in step with the West, and thereby potentially damages its chances
as occident – orient go-between. But Karakas isn’t convinced that
Turkey is up to the job of mediator.

"A country can only propagate peace to the outside world if it is
peaceful itself," he said with reference to Turkey’s treatment of
Kurds and religious minorities. "There has been progress, but not
enough to meet EU standards."

Keeping options open

The question many commentators are asking is whether, in light of
recent gestures to the East, Turkey still wants a place in Brussels.

Kizilocak says it does, but says the euphoria Turks once felt at the
prospect of membership has been quelled by the reality that the EU
is keeping them at arms length.

As it stands, the earliest they could join is 2015, but in terms of
politics that is a long way off, and it is conceivable that by then,
interest will have waned altogether.

Karakas says that even if Brussels did decide to let Ankara in, it
would not open the door as wide as it has to other members. "The EU has
outlined a series of protection clauses," he said, citing conditions
which would limit the free movement of people and restrict financial
support for farmers.

"These things are making their way into the debate and people are
starting to wonder why they should make the effort to take the
necessary steps it they are not going to be treated the same as
other countries."

So although Turkey will continue with its accession negotiations, it
is realistic enough not to put all its eggs in the European basket. It
is actively pursuing other options, a third path, as Karakas puts it.

And that might ultimately see it drawn deeper into the Middle East
fold or holding hands with fuel-rich Russia.