EU TRIES TO PLAY BALANCING GAME WITH AZERBAIJAN AND ARMENIA: ZAMAN
news.am
Oct 29 2009
Armenia
EU has assured Turkey that will open the border with Armenia for
many years. It is not surprising that the Armenia-Turkey Protocols
are welcomed by EU, Turkish Zaman daily reads. NEWS.am posts some
extracts from the article.
The daily underlines that the Protocols "represent the first step
on a somewhat rocky road to hopefully bigger things. After all the
efforts of the last two years, it would be a huge disappointment if
this process were to grind to a halt; therefore, it is clear that both
Yerevan and Ankara are going to come under considerable pressure to
ratify the protocols as soon as possible, even though both countries
face considerable challenges in doing so. And while Turkey’s good
intentions are welcomed by the international community, they are
still viewed with apprehension in Azerbaijan even though Turkey’s
elites continue to promise Baku they will not do anything to hurt
their friendship. While an outsider can look at the bigger picture
and see the potential short-, medium- and long-term benefits for the
region, from an Azerbaijani perspective it must be understandably
hard. Seeing the president of the country that ‘occupies’ around 17
percent of your territory sitting and laughing with the president of
the country you believe to be your best friend is tough for ordinary
folks to comprehend."
"And at the same time, what sort of best friend tries to screw you
over gas prices and transit rates? Whether Turkey will be able to
hold on to the promises it has made to Baku (no border opening without
something happening on Nagorno-Karabakh) remains to be seen as Turkey
may find itself caught between saving its own credibility and Baku.
And defining what is meant by progress is not easy either. We may
believe it to mean liberation — reaching an agreement for a phased
withdrawal of Armenian forces from the ‘occupied’ territories —
but in reality it could be something far less.
Moreover there seems to be little sympathy in the West for Azerbaijan’s
position in all of this. Indeed many people believe that Turkey would
be making a mistake if the normalization process stopped or was held
in limbo because of Azerbaijani concerns. In the EU, for example,
a common view is that the opening of the border may make it easier
to bring about a quicker resolution of the Karabakh conflict — not
a view shared by Azerbaijan, which would see it as Armenia getting
the candies and Baku being left with the empty bag.
The EU has always tried to play a very careful balancing game in its
relationship with Azerbaijan and Armenia. Both are part of the EU’s
European Neighborhood Policy (ENP) and the new Eastern Partnership
(EaP), but there are ambiguities. While in Azerbaijan’s ENP Action
Plan, when talking about Karabakh the EU refers to Azerbaijan’s
territorial integrity; in Armenia’s it talks about the right
of self-determination. The EU virtually never asks Yerevan to
respect Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity, rather preferring not
to take a position but to sit on the fence. Because of Azerbaijan’s
&’autocratic’ image — having questionable respect for democracy —
there seems to be little compassion for Baku even though the country
is of increasing geo-strategic importance not least because of its
hydrocarbon reserves. Azerbaijan is a crucial partner for the EU.
Tapping into Caspian gas is seen as the best remedy to bring an end
to Russian control over Europe’s energy market.
Even speculation of Caspian energy resources to the West being put at
risk has not really helped Azerbaijan gain more sympathy. Rather the
EU seems assured that Baku will not want to shoot itself in the foot
by tying itself solely to Russian and Iranian markets. Aliyev wants
the solid and reliable EU market without having to give Moscow a cut.
In his anger with Turkey, he has talked about other routes that would
cut Ankara out, but these would be extremely tricky and expensive.
Therefore, there is a strong belief that this current &’hiccup’ with
Turkey will sort itself out one way or another, so we should keep our
fingers crossed. But there can be no doubt a good start would be for
Turkey to stop expecting Baku to give it bargain basement prices for
top quality goods and make Azerbaijan a decent deal. This would at
least be a strong gesture of friendship and honesty."