TURKEY-ARMENIA PROTOCOLS MAY BE RATIFIED WITH PRECONDITIONS: U.S. POLITICAL OBSERVER

Today
57052.html
Oct 30 2009
Azerbaijan

Day.Az interview with political observer, U.S. Bureau Chief of
"Business People" business magazine in Washington Yuri Sigov.

Day.Az: What role does Washington play in a Turkey-Armenia dialogue?

Is there pressure on Ankara?

Yuri Sigov: The U.S. policy towards normalization of Turkey-Armenia
relations is quite clear – the more stable and more predictable will
be the situation in the Caucasus, the simpler the U.S. will carry out
its policies, especially in the energy sector, as well as against Iran.

Certainly, the United States supported Turkey in its efforts to
normalize relations with Armenia, but tried to do this without
jeopardizing its relations with Azerbaijan. In future, the United
States will continue to do everything possible so that Armenia and
Turkey fully normalize relations. However, I am not sure that this
somehow helps speedy resolution to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

Q: What can you say about possible opening of borders between Turkey
and Armenia? Do you believe the Turkish parliament will ratify the
protocols?

A: More likely, Turkey-Armenia protocols will be ratified with
preconditions, since there is a common vector for normalization of
relations with its neighbors in the Turkish political circles.

Definite preconditions may imply advancing proposals regarding return
of Azerbaijani lands. Quite possibly, Turkish parliamentarians
will listen the Armenian side’s explanations about fate of
Nagorno-Karabakh. In any case, this process is underway and, most
likely, the border will be opened in near future.

Q: To what extend Armenian diaspora impacts Armenia-Turkey ties? What
steps will the Diaspora take once the borders are opened?

A: I think the Armenian Diaspora is very influential and is able
to have a considerable influence on certain political processes in
many countries, including the United States. As to normalization of
relations between Turkey and Armenia, I still think "big politics"
and its ultimate pragmatism, rather than influence of some particular
groups, including the Diaspora, played the mayor role in this respect.

Q: What impact will Armenia-Turkey rapproachement have on Armenian
Diaspora’s efforts to push the issue of the so-called "Armenian
genocide" through the U.S. Congress?

A: One should not place a global significance on the discussions in
the U.S. Congress. Even if Armenian Diaspora pushes any discussion on
the issue of "genocide", the result may be a resolution or some sort
of definition, having neither legislature nor any other "commander’s"
significance as a rule. The mere fact of discussion on any issue in
the U.S. Congress is actually important, but one should not expect
any significant and far-reaching consequences.

Q: What impact will Armenia-Turkey dialogue have on resolution of
the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict? Is Yerevan likely to make concession
on the Karabakh issue?

A: Turkey-Armenia normalization will definitely bring about no specific
momentums in the Karabakh issue.

The essence of the conflict at current stage is real, but not
declarative desire of the very members of the Minsk Group to break
the deadlock. While negotiations are held more for the sake of
negotiations, those who can directly make progress in the Karabakh
issue (the United States, Russia, and partly Europe) deal with far
more important matters than Karabakh.

I feel this status quo, when the conflict remains almost frozen,
can last for quite a long time, unless Azerbaijan makes sharp moves
and makes full use its opportunities in relations with Russia.

Since Russia has its allied relations with Armenia, I do not believe
that Moscow will take a sharp turn from one Transcaucasian country
to another. The United States has yet to be unobtrusive to continue
the negotiation process and expect all to normalize in the Caucasus
by itself. America seeks to make sure that there will be no further
military action in the region, oil and gas pipelines will be supplied
uninterruptedly, and that its political and economic positions will
strengthen there.