International Crisis Group
Nov 1 2009

CrisisWatch N°75, 1 November 2009
CrisisWatch N°75
1 November 2009

Three actual or potential conflict situations around the world
deteriorated and four improved in October 2009, according to the new
issue of the International Crisis Group’s monthly bulletin
CrisisWatch, released today.

In Pakistan, a military ground operation against Taliban strongholds
in South Waziristan triggered a new wave of displacement and was
surrounded by a brutal escalation in militant attacks across the
country. At least 200,000 have been forced to flee fighting in the
northwest region amid reports the military is impeding humanitarian
access. Attacks elsewhere left hundreds dead, with over 100 killed in
bombings targeting a market in Peshawar on 28 October.

In Iraq, over 150 were killed when several massive explosions struck
government buildings in heavily-guarded central Baghdad for the second
time in three months. Progress towards national elections scheduled
for January 2010 also faltered, as parliamentarians failed to reach
agreement on a crucial electoral law. The situation also deteriorated
in Zimbabwe, as Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai disengaged from the
unity government to protest stalled implementation of September 2008’s
power-sharing deal. While Tsvangirai has stopped short of withdrawing
from the government, the move has underscored risks attendant to the
current political impasse between the power-sharing partners.

Hopes for peace in Nigeria’s Niger Delta increased, as thousands of
militants laid down arms in response to the government’s three-month
amnesty program and the dominant militant group MEND announced a new
indefinite ceasefire. Whilst these are significant steps forward,
concerns for stability in the region remain, including the
government’s capacity to deliver reintegration programs and prospects
for much-needed development.

In Honduras, a late month deal between the de facto government and
ousted President Zelaya increased chances for an end to the political
crisis that has gripped the country since the 28 June coup. The deal
awaits approval by the country’s Supreme Court and Congress, and would
see Zelaya reinstated as president under an interim power-sharing
government. A new peace agreement between Tuareg rebels and the
government in Mali consolidated progress towards an end to the
long-running conflict in the north and resulted in agreement from
elusive rebel leader Ibrahim Ag Bahanga to disarm.

Armenia and Turkey took a further step towards normalizing relations,
following the signing of draft protocols on 10 October restoring
diplomatic ties and opening their common border. Both parliaments now
need to ratify the accord, and Crisis Group identifies the situation
as a conflict resolution opportunity.

Crisis Group identifies a conflict risk alert for Afghanistan, as the
country heads towards a crucial second-round run-off scheduled for 7
November following highly flawed presidential polls in August.
Political uncertainty increased considerably as CrisisWatch went to
press, as incumbent president Hamid Karzai’s opponent Abdullah
Abdullah withdrew from the race over risks of electoral malpractice. A
second disputed election risks further eroding confidence in
Afghanistan’s electoral process and strengthening the hand of Taliban
insurgents. Urgent action is required to ensure accountability for
electoral fraud during the first round and to push forward key
governance reforms.

October 2009 TRENDS

Deteriorated Situations
Iraq, Pakistan, Zimbabwe

Improved Situations
Armenia/Turkey, Honduras, Mali, Nigeria

Unchanged Situations
Afghanistan, Algeria, Armenia, Armenia/Turkey, Azerbaijan, Bahrain,
Bangladesh, Basque Country (Spain), Belarus, Bolivia, Bosnia, Burundi,
Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Chechnya (Russia), China
(internal), Colombia, Côte d’Ivoire, Cyprus, Democratic Republic of
Congo, Ecuador, Egypt, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Fiji, Gabon, Georgia,
Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Haiti, Honduras, India (non-Kashmir),
Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Israel/Occupied Palestinian Territories,
Kashmir, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Kosovo, Kyrgyzstan, Lebanon, Macedonia,
Madagascar, Mali, Mauritania, Moldova, Myanmar/Burma, Nagorno-Karabakh
(Azerbaijan), Nepal, Niger, Nigeria, North Caucasus (non-Chechnya),
Northern Ireland, North Korea, Pakistan, Philippines, Rwanda, Saudi
Arabia, Serbia, Sierra Leone, Somalia, Sri Lanka, Sudan, Syria, Taiwan
Strait, Tajikistan, Thailand, Timor-Leste, Turkey, Turkmenistan,
Uganda, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Venezuela, Western Sahara, Yemen,
Zimbabwe

November 2009 OUTLOOK

Conflict Risk Alert
Afghanistan

Conflict Resolution Opportunity
Armenia/Turkey

*NOTE: CrisisWatch indicators – up and down arrows, conflict risk
alerts, and conflict resolution opportunities – are intended to
reflect changes within countries or situations from month to month,
not comparisons between countries. For example, no "conflict risk
alert" is given for a country where violence has been occurring and is
expected to continue in the coming month: such an indicator is given
only where new or significantly escalated violence is feared.

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From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress