STRATFOR COMPANY EXPERT: TURKISH PARLIAMENT WILL MOST LIKELY NOT RATIFY PROTOCOLS

Today
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Nov 2 2009
Azerbaijan

Day.Az interview with STRATFOR global intelligence company expert
Marco Papic.

Day.Az: What, in your opinion, Washington’s role in today’s dialogue
between Armenia and Turkey? Can we speak of a certain pressure
on Ankara?

Marco Papic: Not at all. U.S. will not pressure Turkey on this issue
because it needs Turkish cooperation on much more important, from
Washington’s perspective, topics. Here we are mainly talking about
Iran, Iraq and even with Bosnia.

Q: What can you say about the possible opening of borders between
Turkey and Armenia? In your opinion, will the Turkish-Armenian
protocols be ratified by the Turkish Parliament?

A: Reopening of Turkish-Armenian border would be a positive development
for Ankara. It would gain access into the region and also settle some
of the frozen conflicts that destabilize its borders.

Ankara wants a stable neighborhood so that it can spread its influence
accordingly. In regards to the ratification of the protocols – Its
difficult to gauge right now, but the Parliament will most likely not
ratify anything that settles the diplomatic dispute between Ankara and
Yerevan that does not also settle the issue of the Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict.

Q: How does the dialogue between Armenia and Turkey affect the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict? Can Baku expect any concessions on the
Karabakh issue from Yerevan?

A: Thus far Turkey has maintained that without a solution to the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, there won’t be any resolution to the
Turkish-Armenian talks. This seems to be still the case today and will
continue to be the case. However, in the future, it is possible that
Armenia will decide that normalizing its relations with Turkey will
be more important than maintaining a hard-line on the Nagorno-Karabakh
issue.

Q: How important, in your opinion, is now Armenian diaspora in
Turkish-Armenian relations? What can be expected if the borders will
be opened after all?

A: The diaspora is not as important as it is often portrayed. Yerevan
is pretty much doing what it needs to do regardless of the diaspora’s
position.