US ARMENIANS HOPE FOR FAILURE OF ANKARA-YEREVAN DEAL
Hurriyet
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Nov 3 2009
Turkey
American-Armenians and their congressional backers are keen on the
‘genocide’ recognition, not the creation of normalized ties between
Turkey and Armenia, diplomats and experts say. Armenians will try
to persuade the world that it’s the Turks that stopped the process,
an expert argue Armenian-Americans and their backers in Congress are
hoping for the collapse of a normalization deal between Turkey and
Armenia so they can continue to lobby for U.S. recognition of what
they term the "Armenian genocide," diplomats and analysts said.
The Turkish and Armenian foreign ministers signed historic protocols on
Oct. 10 that called for the creation of normal diplomatic relations
between the two neighbors and the reopening of their shared land
border. Their parliaments must first ratify the deal before the
provisions go into effect.
Before reopening the land border, which has remained closed for 16
years, Turkey wants to see some progress toward the resolution of
the Nagorno-Karabakh problem between Armenia and Azerbaijan, Ankara’s
close ally.
Nagorno-Karabakh, a mainly Armenian-populated enclave inside
Azerbaijan’s borders, has been under Armenian occupation since a war
in the early 1990s.
Reopening border key matter
Yerevan, however, seeks to keep the normalization deal with Turkey and
the Nagorno-Karabakh issue as completely separate processes, urging
Turkey to reopen the border as soon as possible. Diaspora Armenians,
meanwhile, also staunchly oppose any concessions on Karabakh.
But without progress on the Karabakh matter, it will be extremely
difficult for Ankara to move to reopen the border. "If there’s no
progress on Karabakh, Turkey simply can’t reopen the border with
Armenia, which will effectively mean that the reconciliation process
will have failed," one Washington-based analyst said. "If this happens,
it will be important to see which side will be blamed for the derailed
process. The Armenians will try to persuade the world that it’s the
Turks that stopped the process."
In that case, U.S. Armenians and their backers in Congress will seek
to punish Turkey in Congress, the analyst said.
Armenian efforts in Congress
A resolution urging the United States to recognize the World War
I-era killings of Armenians in the Ottoman Empire as genocide has
been pending in the House of Representatives, Congress’ lower chamber,
since February.
Democratic Senator Robert Menendez and Republican Senator John Ensign
introduced a similar resolution in the Senate, Congress’ upper chamber,
last month.
"Pro-Armenian lawmakers in both sides of Congress will step up
efforts for genocide recognition in the event of the collapse of the
Ankara-Yerevan deal," said the analyst.
"Any formal U.S. genocide recognition would kill the normalization
process," one Turkish diplomat said.
But U.S. Armenians and their congressional backers are keen on genocide
recognition, not the creation of normalized Ankara-Yerevan ties,"
said the analyst.
"So there’s a major trap jeopardizing the reconciliation process, and
that trap can be prevented only if there’s progress on the solution
of the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute," the analyst said.