RUSSIA MAY UTILIZE AGGRAVATION IN TURKISH-AZERBAIJANI RELATIONS TO FURTHER ADVANCE ITS POLITICAL AGENDA IN SOUTH CAUCASUS

ArmInfo
2009-11-03 13:18:00

ArmInfo. Russia may utilize aggravation in Turkish-Azerbaijani
relations to further advance its political agenda in South Caucasus.

As American The Jamestown Foundation reports, Russia may utilize this
excellent opportunity to further advance its political agenda in the
region: the isolation of Georgia by cutting it off from new transit
routes; shelving the E.U. and U.S.-backed Nabucco gas pipeline project
by destroying the Azerbaijani-Turkish strategic partnership and thus
forcing Azerbaijan to sell its gas to Russia; drawing Turkey into
its own orbit of influence undermining the E.U.-U.S.-Turkey axis of
influence in the region. Before Washington realizes, it will be too
late to protect the South Caucasus as a sovereign and independent
region. For the first time since the collapse of the Soviet Union,
the U.S. appears to underestimate what is unfolding in the region. A
lack of clear vision on the part of the U.S. administration clearly
plays into Russian hands. It is perhaps no coincidence that the
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov so actively pushed his Armenian
counterpart to sign the protocol with Turkey.

According to The Jamestown Foundation, it is clear that the
recent developments in the South Caucasus and the Turkish-Armenian
rapprochement have seriously damaged the Turkish-Azerbaijani strategic
partnership. This partnership has been the backbone of East-West
energy and its future transportation corridors, security, political
and geostrategic balance in the region as well as the overall Turkish
(or Western) entrance into the Caspian region. Without this strategic
partnership, the Turkish, E.U. and U.S. axis of influence in the South
Caucasus and further into the Central Asian region is at risk. This
geopolitical miscalculation on the part of Turkish, E.U. and U.S.

officials, all of whom have actively pushed for a one-sided
normalization of Turkish-Armenian relations without the consideration
of Azerbaijan’s interests and the resolution of the Karabakh conflict
will see a boomerang effect.