TURKISH-AZERBAIJANI "COLD WAR:" MOSCOW BENEFITS FROM WASHINGTON’S INDECISIVENESS
Fariz Ismailzade

Jamestown Foundation
Nov 2 2009

Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu (R) and his Armenian
counterpart Eduard Nalbandiana complete the signing of the protocol.

Recent weeks have seen unprecedented and potentially far reaching
damage to the Turkish-Azerbaijani strategic partnership. Ever since
Turkey’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) announced its
intension to normalize relations with Azerbaijan’s arch-rival Armenia,
the relationship between Ankara and Baku has cooled. The Azerbaijani
leadership sent a strong message to Ankara in April, when President
Ilham Aliyev refused to accept Turkish President Abdulah Gul’s
invitation to attend the U.N. conference "Alliance of civilizations,"
held in Istanbul.

Yet, it was after the signing of the protocols on the establishment of
diplomatic relations between Turkey and Armenia that Baku’s outrage
spiraled. Both the Azerbaijani public and its political leadership
openly condemned this one-sided Turkish policy. Indeed, the Azeri
foreign ministry immediately issued a press release in which it said
that the signing of the protocols "directly contradicts the national
interests of Azerbaijan and overshadows the spirit of brotherly
relations between Azerbaijan and Turkey built on deep historical roots"
(, October 12).

That apparent cooling of the bilateral relationship, moved toward a
cold war when Azerbaijani flags were banned during the Turkish-Armenian
soccer match in Bursa on October 14 and Azerbaijani media outlets
broadcast images of the Azerbaijani flag being torn apart and thrown
into trash bins by Turkish police officers. In addition, the Azeri
public was outraged by reports that the Armenian President Serzh
Sargsyan, whom Azerbaijanis view as one of the main organizers of the
Khojali massacre in 1992, was warmly embraced by President Gul and
his wife during the soccer match. Gul’s wife, reportedly, even cooked
for Sargsyan and Gul offered his bedroom to his Armenian counterpart.

Such news has caused deep anti-Turkish sentiments to flourish in Baku.

Traditionally an ally, brother and last resort of hope, Turkey is
no longer trusted in the Azerbaijani capital. In an effort to gain
an additional friendly neighbor, Ankara seems to have overstretched
and nearly ruined its strategic relations with Azerbaijan.

The reaction in Baku was swift. Turkish flags, hanging in the
memorial for martyred Turkish soldiers, were lowered. Youth groups
and opposition parties lashed out at the Turkish leadership for the
humiliation and disrespect shown to the Azerbaijani flag in Bursa. And
parliament held heated debates about the "flag incident," during
which Vice-Speaker Ziyafat Asgarov said, "I take the disrespect shown
against the Azerbaijani flag as a personal insult" (AZTV, October 16).

Moreover, on October 16 Aliyev announced during his cabinet meeting
that Azerbaijan would consider alternative options to export its gas,
since Turkish-Azerbaijani talks on gas transit have not produced
concrete results (, October 16). He accused Turkey of
stalling these negotiations by offering unacceptably low prices
for Azerbaijani gas and did not hesitate to mention that until now,
Azerbaijan has been selling natural gas to Turkey at 30 percent of
its value on international markets. Aliyev also mentioned Russia,
Iran and the Black sea as alternatives routes for Azeri gas and
coincidently, in the same week, Gazprom and Azerbaijan’s State Oil
Company SOCAR signed an agreement in Baku for the export of 500 million
cubic meters of Azeri gas to Russia at the price Aliyev described as
"mutually beneficial" (Trend News Agency, October 16).

It is clear that the recent developments in the South Caucasus
and the Turkish-Armenian rapprochement have seriously damaged the
Turkish-Azerbaijani strategic partnership. This partnership has
been the backbone of East-West energy and its future transportation
corridors, security, political and geostrategic balance in the region
as well as the overall Turkish (or Western) entrance into the Caspian
region. Without this strategic partnership, the Turkish, E.U. and U.S.

axis of influence in the South Caucasus and further into the Central
Asian region is at risk. This geopolitical miscalculation on the part
of Turkish, E.U. and U.S. officials, all of whom have actively pushed
for a one-sided normalization of Turkish-Armenian relations without
the consideration of Azerbaijan’s interests and the resolution of
the Karabakh conflict will see a boomerang effect.

Russia may utilize this excellent opportunity to further advance its
political agenda in the region: the isolation of Georgia by cutting
it off from new transit routes; shelving the E.U. and U.S.-backed
Nabucco gas pipeline project by destroying the Azerbaijani-Turkish
strategic partnership and thus forcing Azerbaijan to sell its gas to
Russia; drawing Turkey into its own orbit of influence undermining the
E.U.-U.S.-Turkey axis of influence in the region. Before Washington
realizes, it will be too late to protect the South Caucasus as
a sovereign and independent region. For the first time since the
collapse of the Soviet Union, the U.S. appears to underestimate what
is unfolding in the region. A lack of clear vision on the part of the
U.S. administration clearly plays into Russian hands. It is perhaps no
coincidence that the Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov so actively
pushed his Armenian counterpart to sign the protocol with Turkey.