ARMENIAN-TURKISH BORDER WILL INEVITABLY BE OPENED: RUSSIAN EXPERT
Today
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Nov 4 2009
Azerbaijan
Day.Az interview with Russia-based Center for Post-Soviet Area Studies
Alexei Vlasov.
Day.Az: When do you think the updated Madrid principles will be
presented to the presidents of Azerbaijan and Armenia?
Alexei Vlasov: Many views have already been expressed in this respect.
There is some vague wording about it. It is the maximum officials
can now say about this issue. Apparently, there are some points and
questions that should be finally negotiated to make a consistent and
clear stance.
Q: There were a lot of different opinions about impact of the
Armenian-Turkish dialogue on Karabakh conflict … What is Russia’s
position Russia in this regard?
A: Both Foreign Ministry and Russia’s leadership form their stance
most carefully at the official level which is quite understandable.
They prioritize the principle of "do no harm" as every careless
word, every careless phrase, especially at such a high level by the
state involved in settlement of conflicts in South Caucasus can be
interpreted in many different ways and lead to negative consequences.
I believe, Moscow’s official position on this issue is quite
appropriate at the moment.
As for my personal opinion, I see three factors. First, protocols
will probably be ratified, and after some time borders will inevitably
be opened. The second is that whether the Armenian-Turkish agreement
will be supplemented with some preconditions which will further define
the format of resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. I think,
there is 50-percent likelihood that the official statements by Turkish
officials addressed to the Azerbaijani leadership are well founded.
This is not an attempt to create a smokescreen around the ratification
of the protocols.
I am confident that further negotiations on the Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict are underway. The third factor is whether the present
leadership of Armenia will be able to convince the people of Armenia
and the Diaspora that at the moment the question of "genocide" should
be deferred and to what extent the population of Armenia is ready to
understand that regions which are under occupation should be returned
to Azerbaijan as a first step. The main point is for Armenian society
to move towards compromise.
Q: What is the current state of talks between Russia and the U.S. on
missile shield deployment?
A: Negotiations are on the same stage they were a few weeks ago when
U.S. announced its willingness to radically change its approach to the
format of deployment. In other words, the talks are underway. However,
but it would be overly optimistic to say that they will soon lead to
some results. This is linked with a kind of prevailing approach by
the Barack Obama administration to address key foreign policy issues.
Originally a powerful, relevant, strategic initiative was put forward.
But later it turned out that it lacks technical and fundamental
principles that must be determined in the course of implementation
of the initiative itself. Therefore, it takes quite a long time
from a beautiful media delivery of the U.S. president’s statement
to developing concrete principles which can help this statement take
effect. Unfortunately, we face similar situation.
Q: It is believed that Azerbaijan could begin to consider alternative
gas supplies to Europe, because the negotiations with Turkey on gas
exports were not constructive so far. Could this lead to the demise
of the Nabucco project?
A: The issue of alternative gas supply routes is not only of economic
but also of a political nature. There is a specific political context
and certain political points. In essence, Azerbaijan takes a quite
pragmatic approach, uses its energy potential as much as possible
to participate in various projects, which also involves neighboring
countries and countries close to the region.
Often understanding of Azerbaijan’s stance by other states, does
not always means understanding Azerbaijan’s interests on a range
of issues. Hence, sometimes a misunderstanding manifested even in
political points and energy transportation and economic issues.
I think that any option is possible, including the one where Azerbaijan
can choose a different, alternative model of gas transportation. In
any case, it will be the decision of the Azerbaijani leadership,
and it will be fully reasonable and justified.