RASIM MUSABEYOV: PRESERVATION OF THE CURRENT QUO STATUS IN THE KARABAKH CONFLICT IS BURDENSOME FOR RUSSIA

news.AZ
Nov 5 2009
Azerbaijan

Rasim Musabeyov Russia is seriously checking public reaction in
anticipation of the decisive stage in a four year negotiation round
of the Minsk Group, political scientist Rasim Musabeyov has said
commenting on prospects of the Karabakh conflict settlement by results
of the Moscow meeting of the representatives of the Azerbaijani and
Armenian public.

He said the meeting of Azerbaijani and Armenian parliamentarians
and then the mass media leaders and the meeting of public figures in
October in Moscow were significant events.

"I suppose this is not by accident. There is awareness that the
preservation of the current quo status in Karabakh is burdensome for
Russia, while Armenia is on the verge of financial bankruptcy and
can support military parity only under Russia’s direct assistance. It
is burdensome to do so also because military supplies to Armenia are
carried via Iran after the loss of communications via Georgia.

Moscow is aware that Baku will not close eyes on the further financing
of Armenia and its armament and that it will have the most negative
impact on the promising Azerbaijani-Russian projects. It means that
Russia’s expenses on Armenia should be added to the loss of the missed
profits in Azerbaijan.

It is difficult to maintain the current quo status. Georgia is lost
forever. Azerbaijan is strengthening and losing patience while Armenia
is stricken with economic crisis and is going through political
instability. We can expect that Russia will use its influence on
Armenians to end the deadlock in the Karabakh settlement. But Moscow
does not only intend to attain maximally possible concessions in
favor of its Armenian satellite but also deprive Azerbaijan of the
most important economic and military and political preferences. Thus,
there will be a fierce trading between the conflict parties and each of
them with Russia. But not all chances for Karabakh settlement are lost.

However, maximum 3-6 months are left to attain progress on the basis
of Madrid proposals, therefore, the mediators, including Russian ones,
should be in a hurry", noted he.