FEATURE-FORGOTTEN LAND COULD DECIDE TURKEY-ARMENIA PEACE

Reuters
Crisis/idUSL3542048
Nov 6 2009
UK

AGDAM, Azerbaijan, Nov 6 (Reuters) – Brief snatches of colour —
a washing line, a passing car — break up the mass of rubble that
was Agdam.

A handful of Armenians live off scrap metal and pipes plundered from
the ruins of this Azeri town, razed in 1993 as Christian Armenian
forces in the mountain region of Nagorno-Karabakh fought to split
from Muslim Azerbaijan.

Largely forgotten by the outside world since, the remote territory
is now the centre of diplomatic attention because it could torpedo
a fragile peace deal between historic enemies Armenia and Turkey.

Diplomats and analysts say it is on the ghostly remains of Agdam
and other Azeri towns held by Armenian forces that stability in the
wider South Caucasus region — a key transit route for non-Arab oil
and gas to the West — depends.

International mediators and Turkey want the Armenians to return many
of their conquests to Azerbaijan. Turkey has said that its peace
agreement with Armenia cannot advance unless this happens.

The conquered territories run across seven Azeri districts in a
long strip of land connecting Armenia to Nagorno-Karabakh, and the
Armenians are in no mood to give them up.

"It was free land," said Gena, an Armenian who grazes cows on a former
Azeri town now returning to nature. "This land was hard to conquer. To
give it back is easier, but unfair."

The war killed 30,000 people and displaced 1 million. A ceasefire was
agreed in 1994 and Nagorno-Karabakh declared itself independent. But
no country recognised it and the spectre of fresh conflict is never
far away.

"Nagorno-Karabakh was the first (Armenian) military victory in 2,000
years. It’s awfully hard psychologically to climb down from that,"
said Richard Giragosian, the American head of the Armenian Centre
for National and International Studies.

Diplomats say that under peace principles being negotiated by Armenia
and Azerbaijan, at least five of the districts would return, in
exchange for greater international legitimacy for Nagorno-Karabakh
and a future popular vote to decide its status.

A trio of U.S., French and Russian mediators say they are closer to
a deal than ever before.

But years of official secrecy surrounding the talks, and zero
Western engagement on the ground, has seen sentiments harden in
Nagorno-Karabakh. Its leaders are barred from direct participation
in the negotiations due to Azeri opposition.

"They (Azeris) should understand that this is all Armenian land,"
said Luda Airapetyan, a 59-year-old Armenian and former school
teacher in the Nagorno-Karabakh town of Shusha, 15 km (9 miles)
from the breakaway capital Stepanakert.

"We took those lands with blood and we must keep them."

Shusha is a shadow of the 19th century town once among the greatest
in the Caucasus. During the 1990s war, Azeris used its 700-metre
(2,290 ft) height advantage over Stepanakert to pound the Armenian
stronghold, before Shusha also fell.

SNIPERS, MINEFIELDS

For Shusha and the rest of Nagorno-Karabakh, the seven surrounding
districts represent a security guarantee against an Azeri attack,
and a vital land corridor to Armenia.

Nagorno-Karabakh survives almost totally on budget support from Armenia
and donations from the huge Armenian diaspora, but rejects trading its
"independence" for the prospect of sharing in Azerbaijan’s burgeoning
oil revenues.

Fifteen years of fragile peace has seen the seven Azeri regions
effectively absorbed into Nagorno-Karabakh proper, indistinguishable
on maps sold by the de facto foreign ministry.

"They can decide for us, of course," de facto Foreign Minister Georgy
Petrosyan said of the negotiations. "But all the proposed variants
are far removed from real life."

Turkey wants Armenia to give ground to Azerbaijan before Ankara
ratifies a deal to establish diplomatic ties and reopens its border
with Armenia, which was closed in solidarity with Ankara’s ally
Azerbaijan in 1993.

But with the Armenian opposition condemning the thaw with its
Turkish foe, analysts say concessions on Nagorno-Karabakh are even
more unpalatable for Armenian President Serzh Sarksyan, formerly the
wartime commander of the breakaway territory.

Instead, soldiers continue to die on the frontline, picked off by
snipers and hidden ordnance in a warren of trenches and minefields.

Observers estimate around 30 died in 2008, including up to 16 in one
clash in March, the worst in years.

"The status quo is better than what’s being offered," said Masis
Mayilian, director of the Foreign and Security Policy Council
think-tank in Stepanakert.

But to tread water is dangerous in the Caucasus, where a 16-year
stalemate in rebel South Ossetia broke down in war last year between
Russia and Georgia. Azerbaijan is increasing its army on the back of
oil revenues, and frequently threatens force.

"The war is not over yet," Azeri President Ilham Aliyev was quoted
as saying last month. "… we must be prepared at any minute to free
our lands from the occupiers."

The Armenian Centre’s Giragosian said war could come in 10 to 12
years if the situation does not improve and Baku assumes military
superiority.

"What worries me is not an official decision to go to war, but limited
skirmishes that spiral out of control," he said. (Editing by Michael
Stott and Richard Williams)