World Net Daily
Nov 7 2009
Diplomatic ‘success’ may backfire on Obama
Analysts worry ‘lack of administration vision plays into Russian hands’
Posted: November 07, 2009
12:50 am Eastern
Editor’s Note: The following report is excerpted from Joseph Farah’s
G2 Bulletin, the premium online newsletter published by the founder of
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TBILISI, Georgia ` The "success" of Turkey’s diplomatic recognition of
Armenia after almost a century of animosity dating back to the Ottoman
Empire may backfire on the U.S., analysts have said in a report from
Joseph Farah’s G2 Bulletin.
The result could be, security experts agree, a dramatic lessening of
influence on the part of the U.S. and the European Union in the
critical South Caucasus and Central Asia regions.
That’s because the new relationship between Turkey and Armenia is
having devastating effects on Turkey’s relationship with Armenia’s
arch-rival, Azerbaijan, on which Ankara relies for a major source of
its oil and natural gas.
Armenia and Turkey resumed diplomatic relations and reopened their
border after almost a century of opposition stemming from the mass
killing of tens of thousands of Armenians from 1915 to 1918 by the
Ottoman Empire. Modern Turkey emerged from the Ottoman Empire into a
secular state after World War I.
In one sense, the U.S. and EU may have outdone themselves in pressing
Turkey to normalize relations with Armenia which has a separate,
deep-seated dispute with Azerbaijan over its Karabakh region.
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Karabakh is an enclave of predominantly Armenian heritage inside
Azerbaijan that seeks to join with Armenia.
Now Turkey, even though it has recognized Armenia diplomatically and
reopened border crossings, remains committed to ending the Armenian
occupation of Karabakh.
"Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity is as important for Turkey as its
own," said Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu. "Turkey will
continue to advocate Azerbaijan’s rights at every diplomatic stage."
Security analysts view the current rupture in the longstanding
strategic partnership between Turkey and Azerbaijan as a serious
mistake by the U.S., EU and Turkey.
"This geopolitical miscalculation on the part of Turkish, EU and U.S.
officials, all of whom have actively pushed for a one-sided
normalization of Turkish-Armenian relations without the consideration
of Azerbaijan’s interests and the resolution of the Karabakh conflict,
will see a boomerang effect," according to Fariz Ismailzade of the
think-tank Jamestown Foundation.
"This partnership (between Turkey and Azerbaijan) has been the
backbone of East-West energy and its future transportation corridors,
security, political and geostrategic balance in the region as well as
the overall Turkish or Western entrance into the Caspian region,"
Ismailzade said.
In recent weeks, the Turkish-Azerbaijani split also has had a serious
impact on Turkey’s long-range security goal of becoming an energy hub
for Europe.
Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev recently refused to accept Turkish
President Abdullah Gul’s invitation to attend the recent U.N.
conference on Istanbul on "Alliance of Civilizations."
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