news.az, Azerbaijan
Nov 8 2009
The status quo in the Karabakh conflict is suitable for most
countries, German expert
Sun 08 November 2009 | 11:08 GMT Text size:
Interview News.Az with Alexander Rahr, Program Director (Russia /
Eurasia), The German Council on Foreign Relations.
Is the soonest settlement of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict over
Nagorno-Karabakh possible?
I do not think that the solution to this conflict will happen soon.
The main problem lies in the unwillingness of the superpowers to
settle the conflict. I do not see any country declaring the conflict
resolution a top priority for them. Each of them considers other
problems to be a priority.
But it’s no secret that the Karabakh problem is already being
discussed at the highest level. For the first time this year the G-8
leaders adopted a special statement on Nagorno Karabakh, the issue was
discussed at the meetings of not only the leaders of Armenia and
Azerbaijan during their visits abroad, but also between the leaders of
Turkey, Russia and the United States. Does it mean that the statements
of leaders of foreign states about their extreme interest in the
conflict settlement are insincere?
I think, in fact, this issue is not so important for superpowers. The
status quo is suitable for most countries. No solution to the problem
is seen. There are solutions offered by Azerbaijan, there is a
solution, which is suitable for Armenia. And we all know that Armenia
has its supporters in the West, like Azerbaijan has them in the West,
Asia and Turkey.
A lot of developments have lately been observed around Karabakh that
affects the solution of the conflict either directly or indirectly. Is
there any among them that can prevent the escalation of the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict?
Indeed, there are such events and new developments that really affect
the current situation. One of them is last year’s war in Georgia,
which scared most people, especially in the West. The war showed that
the so-called â??frozenâ?? conflicts can be easily escalated and led to
military action anytime. The fear of the European Union about what
they saw in Georgia is obvious. This is a real feeling, therefore,
there is some interest in studying possibilities of solving the
problem of Nagorno-Karabakh once again.
And how do processes around the Armenian-Turkish reconciliation
affect Karabakh?
The processes of opening the Turkish-Armenian border are the second
factors influencing Karabakh conflict, and it is also directly
connected with EUâ??s Eastern Partnership policy, aimed at the Western
CIS and South Caucasus countries.
Do you believe the border between Turkey and Armenia will open?
This issue is unclear and it is unknown whether it will happen at all,
because there are so many questions. In any case, this is an
achievement of European policy, which aims to persuade Turkey to play
a stabilizing role between the EU and the Caucasus.
I would call energy policy another factor influencing the Karabakh
settlement. The Nabucco gas pipeline is likely to be built though few
believed in it a couple of months ago. It is necessary to create
conditions for this purpose. Nabucco is now said to be likely built
not from Central Asia but from Iraq. That is, the pipeline will pump
an Iraqi or later Iranian gas via Azerbaijan and Turkey and to the
West. In this case, the problem of â??frozen conflictsâ?? in this region,
including Kurdish, Nagorno Karabakh and Abkhazian and South Osetian
conflicts will again become important for the countries that are
willing to ensure energy security of Europe in the coming 20-30 years.
As for the beginning of our conversation, I agree that the Karabakh
problem is perceived, and discussed, but frankly speaking I do not
believe in the prospects of its early settlement. I know that this
issue is somehow mentioned at the diplomatic level or even by G-8. But
the fact is that this conflict has not been settled yet.
Edi Black
News.Az