AZERBAIJAN NEEDS TO GAIN A CRUSHING VICTORY OVER ARMENIA: RUSSIAN POLITICAL EXPERT

Today
378.html
Nov 11 2009
Azerbaijan

Day.Az interview with doctor of historical sciences, senior research
fellow at Russian Academy of Sciences Institute of World Economy and
International Relations Alexander Krylov.

Day.Az: How real are Turkey’s chances to become OSCE Minsk Group
co-chair country?

Alexander Krylov: I think it is unrealistic. Turkey is a member of the
OSCE Minsk Group along with several European countries, and thus has
an opportunity to influence its work. It can become co-chair only
after Armenia’s agreement which is unlikely to happen. Moreover,
it would require one of the co-chairs to give up its role. The U.S.

possible withdrawal from the Minsk Group co-chairs was actively
discussed over a year ago, but now it is obvious that these were only
senseless arguments by some political scientists.

Q: Do you think Russia will facilitate Turkey’s becoming OSCE Minsk
Group co-chair once there is a chance?

A: Russia will not help change the current format of the Minsk Group,
as it will not facilitate the peace process. However, currently Russia
highly appreciates Turkey’s policy which opposes militarization in the
South Caucasus and helps stabilize the situation in the Caspian-Black
Sea region. Russia strongly supports the process of normalizing
relations between Armenia and Turkey, as well as Ankara’s active
mediator role in settlement of the Karabakh problem.

I think joint efforts by the Minsk Group and Turkey, which acts as an
independent and active intermediary, may bring about tangible progress
in resolution of the Karabakh conflict. However, it must be clearly
understood that no diplomatic activity by intermediaries will replace
readiness by conflicting parties to make compromise.

Q: Various media outlets report that Armenia has informally agreed
to leave the occupied Azerbaijani territories …

A: To make it possible, there is a need for mutually acceptable
solution to Nagorno Karabakh or Azerbaijan will need to gain a
crushing victory over Armenia in a new war. None of the options exist
at the moment. Under today’s conditions such a move would be regarded
in the Armenian society as a capitulation, which can not have any
explanation. This would mean instant political death of a leader or
leaders who will do it. I do not see those who are willing to commit
such a political hara-kiri among Armenia’s current leaders.

Q: Can Russia exert pressure on Armenia to leave occupied lands?

A: I think Russia will put no pressure on Armenia. The Russian
diplomacy aims not at a diplomatic capitulation of Armenia or
Azerbaijan, but peaceful settlement of the Karabakh problem. It is
impossible to achieve such a settlement through diplomatic and any
other outside pressure on one of the conflicting sides or on all sides
at the same time. Such methods are widely used by American diplomacy,
but they have not helped to resolve conflicts so far.

Moreover, the peace process in the Middle East was in complete impasse
precisely because American diplomacy puts pressure on both Israelis
and the Palestinians. Peace accords were signed as a result, but the
conflict was not resolved, Palestine was split and a new outbreak
of hostilities ensued. The end to all of these is unpredictable. I
think that these diplomatic failures should be a lesson for all those
involved in peaceful settlement of the Karabakh conflict.