AZERBAIJANI-ARMENIAN TIES EMOTIONALLY CHARGED, SAYS CAUCASUS RESEARCHER

Hurriyet Daily News
Nov 15 2009
Turkey

A senior researcher at a Caucasus research center says Baku-Yerevan
ties are much more flawed than the relationship between Georgia and
Russia. He says that despite the August 2008 war, Georgians have a
favorable view of Russians but are skeptical of the Kremlin, while
in the case of Azerbaijan and Armenia, hostility is visible between
the two peoples, thus complicating an ultimate peace

Compared to the relationship between Georgia and Russia,
Azerbaijani-Armenian ties are more emotionally charged, thereby making
it difficult to build a lasting peace, according to the regional
director of the Caucasus Research Resource Center.

Hans Gutbrod told the Hurriyet Daily News & Economic Review on the
sidelines of an international symposium in Tbilisi that while Georgians
were against the policies of the Kremlin, at least there was no enmity
toward Russians. In the case of Azerbaijan and Armenia, the situation
is far worse because of the hostility between the two peoples.

"The relationship between Azerbaijan and Armenia is much more flawed.

The Armenians do desire some sort of stabilization and improvement –
ideally based on the status quo – whereas the view in Azerbaijan is
very hostile," he said.

"That reflects the result of similar conflicts in many places: The
side that loses is particularly angry and emotionally charged about
the conflict. This is not surprising at all," he said.

Azerbaijan and Armenia dispute control of Nagorno-Karabakh, an Azeri
territory occupied by Yerevan in the 1990s. The status quo lingers
because no peace treaty has been signed between the two countries.

"I think it is important for both sides to realize the risks of
[continuing the status quo]," Gutbrod said.

Armenia must understand that it needs to develop a relationship with
Azerbaijan since the country will always remain a neighbor. Meanwhile,
he said, "The Azerbaijani leadership needs to make sure that they
can prepare their population for a peace that is mainly based on a
compromise. As we saw in the August war between Georgia and Russia,
a military solution is very difficult."

Georgians favorable toward Russia, skeptical of Kremlin

Georgia went to war in 2008 with Russia over another frozen conflict in
the breakaway region of South Ossetia, resulting in Russia unilaterally
recognizing the independence of both South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

"What we see is that Georgians generally have positive views of most
of its neighbors, including the Russians. [For example], when we asked
if they would approve or disapprove of a woman of Georgian nationality
marrying a Russian man along with a range of other nationalities, the
Russians remain the most positive, even after the war," said Gutbrod.

"I think that shows there is a close cultural proximity to Russia and
Russians. When it comes to the views of what the Kremlin does, however,
Georgians are very skeptical and there is not a lot of goodwill for
Russia. The Georgians are really still very favorable to Russia but,
at the same time, skeptical of the Kremlin," he said.

Azerbaijani public skeptical of Yerevan

Referring to the case of Armenia and Azerbaijan, Gutbrod said:
"We know that public opinion in Azerbaijan is very skeptical of any
deeper engagement with Armenia. I think in the short term that’s very
understandable and reflects the particular outcome of a conflict,
but if we take a broader view, ultimately Armenia is not going to go
away and will remain a neighbor to Azerbaijan."

Gutbrod said the process of normalizing ties between Turkey and
Armenia might positively impact the relationship between Armenia and
Azerbaijan. "The potential opportunity for Azerbaijan is if Armenians
realize this very long, difficult relationship with Turkey is one they
could restructure and bring to a positive stage, it might help them
rethink their relationship with Azerbaijan as well," he said. "We are
ultimately locked into this part of the world and we cannot choose
where we are going to live."

Border a question for Turkey, not for Caucasus

He said the opening of the border between Ankara and Yerevan would
actually offer opportunities in other frozen conflicts in the
Caucasus. Asked if the border could be opened before a solution to
the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute was found, he said: "That’s a question
primarily driven by Turkish politics and to what extent Turkey succeeds
in convincing Azerbaijan [that it’s] a viable step. That’s a question
for Ankara, not a question for the Caucasus."