ARMENIA-TURKEY RAPPROCHEMENT CRUCIAL FOR OBAMA: ZAMAN
news.am
Nov 16 2009
Armenia
"How can a country that is supposedly turning authoritarian at home
and Islamist in its foreign policy be pursuing a democratization
package for Kurds and an engagement policy with Armenia?", Turkish
Zaman daily quotes Turkish analyst Omer Taspinar.
"The Kurdish reform initiative, which will expand cultural rights for
Kurds, is applauded by both the EU and Washington. Such democratic
steps aimed at a peaceful solution to the Kurdish problem are likely
to bolster Ankara’s stalled accession process with the EU. One
can thus argue that by tackling the Kurdish issue, the Justice and
Development Party (AKP) is also trying to improve Turkey’s chances
of EU membership. The same goes for the opening with Armenia.
Rapprochement between Turkey and Armenia is a crucial priority for the
Obama administration. The US president needs a face-saving excuse in
order to convince the Armenian lobby and the US Congress that genocide
recognition is not the way to go with Turkey. He can only to do so
by pointing at the progress on the ground. Therefore, by improving
its relations with Yerevan, Ankara is in fact also improving its
relations with Washington," the daily reads.
"So where is the Islamic agenda in all these policies? Skeptics will
argue that Ankara’s close relations with Iran and recent problems
with Israel illustrate the Islamist tilt in its foreign policy. But is
Turkey’s Iran policy based on a sense of Islamic solidarity? Would a
more secular government in Turkey follow a very different Iran policy?
There are major trade and energy contracts, amounting to $10 billion,
between the two countries. In my opinion Turkey’s Iran policy is
more about economic interests and "realpolitik. As far as Israel is
concerned, the policies of the AKP government reflect the feelings
of the Turkish street. In other words, Turkey’s anger with Israel
is not an Islamic expression. It is rather a populist expression,"
the daily says.
"Do you have to be an Islamist to feel such anger? This is why it
doesn’t make much sense to talk about an Islamist turn in Turkish
foreign policy. Turkey is becoming a country where public opinion
matters much more than before. Populism and democracy often go
hand-in-hand. After all, politicians who run democratic countries
need to always think about elections and the ballot box. This is
why they develop a chronic habit of looking at opinion polls. They
do their best to follow the wishes of their constituency. In that
sense, the AKP is not any different. It is a populist party rather
than an Islamist one. If the EU is popular with the Turkish street,
the AKP will push for more EU reform," Omer Taspinar outlines.
"Are there, then, no dangers in populism? The answer depends on the
social and economic context. The street can sometimes turn to extreme
ideologies and elect extremist politicians. After all, Hitler was an
elected politician, and he was popular with the German street. But
any objective observer of Turkey would agree that the Turkish street
is pragmatic. Turkish voters, like voters in Western democracies,
look at the economic situation first. Bread and butter issues are
much more important than ideology for them.
Therefore, if the AKP is unable to run the economy properly, it
will most probably lose the elections. This is why job creation, the
economic growth rate, the trade balance and volume with neighbors are
such critical factors for Turkey’s democratically elected politicians.
No democratically elected government can ignore such issues. For all
these reasons, democracies tend to be pragmatic systems. The need to
get re-elected has a moderating impact on politicians. There are no
reasons to doubt that the same dynamics are at play in Turkey’s own
political evolution," the daily concludes.