TURKEY AND RUSSIA COULD FORM ‘AXIS OF THE EXCLUDED’ IN EURASIA: CHATHAM HOUSE

News.am
Nov 16 2009
Armenia

Problems in relations with the United States, and the lack of progress
in Turkey’s efforts to secure membership of the EU, led commentators
to speculate that Turkey and Russia could form an ‘axis of the
excluded’ in Eurasia," reads the report by British Royal Institute
of International Affairs Chatham House, titled "Turkey, Russia and
the Caucasus".

According to the report, Russian-Georgian conflict in 2008 made
Turkish authorities "to reassess" policy towards Russian and the
Caucasus. "Turkey had developed burgeoning economic and political ties
with Russia and maintained close links with neighbouring Georgia,"
the report says. NEWS.am posts the passages from the report concerning
Armenia.

"The conflict raised questions over whether Turkey would become a key
energy transit state given the deteriorating security situation in the
South Caucasus. Relations between Ankara and Moscow were challenged
as both had previously stressed their common interests in preserving
regional stability.

However, the conflict opened up possibilities for Turkey to normalize
relations with Armenia, although this could upset Ankara’s close ties
with Baku.

Concerning the North Caucasus, an initial sympathy in Turkey for the
plight of the Chechens caused friction between Ankara and Moscow.

Turkey was grouped with Azerbaijan and Georgia in a bloc supportive
of the emerging interests of NATO and the EU in the South Caucasus
and aligned against the policies of Armenia and Russia.

Turkey’s official position has been that the land frontier would
only be reopened and diplomatic relations established with Yerevan
after Armenia openly acknowledged Turkey’s borders, abandoned its
international campaign for recognition of the events of 1915 as
Genocide, and resolved the conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh to the
satisfaction of Azerbaijan.

With little prospect for a peaceful solution over Nagorno-Karabakh
and feeling threatened by Baku, Yerevan has developed close economic,
political and military ties with Moscow.

After the events of August 2008 President Gul accepted an invitation
from his Armenian counterpart, Serzh Sargsyan to attend a World Cup
qualifying football match between the Turkish and Armenian national
teams in Yerevan on 6 September. The Russo-Georgian conflict gave an
added impetus, and in the wake of Gul’s visit there were a number of
high-level contacts between Turkish and Armenian politicians. Ankara
was also being pressured by the new Obama administration, which
was seriously considering officially recognizing the events of 1915
as Genocide.

After further Swiss mediation, on 31 August 2009 a statement
was released noting that Ankara and Yerevan had initialled two
Protocols to establish diplomatic relations, open the land border
and develop bilateral relations. The intention was for both parties
to complete internal political consultations within six weeks,
sign the Protocols, and then submit them to their parliaments for
ratification. According to an agreed timetable, the land border
would be open within two months after the Protocols entered into
force. Various sub-commissions would also then be formed to develop
relations, including most controversially a sub-commission to work
on the ‘historical dimension’. The two Protocols were signed by the
Turkish and Armenian foreign ministers in Switzerland on 10 October
and a few days later Sargsyan visited Turkey to attend the second
match between the Turkish and Armenian national football teams.

Expectations have been raised that relations between Turkey and
Armenia will be fully normalized in the next months. Both the EU and
the United States have warmly welcomed this turn of events."