DOMINO EFFECT OF TURKEY-ARMENIA WARMTH TO COAT GATE OF ORIENT, SAYS ANALYST
Fulya Ozerkan
Hurriyet Daily News
Nov 17 2009
Turkey
The warm winds of change in Turkish-Armenian ties will somehow create
a domino effect with positive implications, from the lifting of the
blockade on Nakhichevan to the resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh
problem, according a senior foreign policy analyst from an Ankara-based
think tank
The warming relations between Turkey and Armenia could change the
fate of Nakhchivan, an isolated territory on Turkey’s eastern border,
according to an Ankara-based think tank.
Nakhchivan is an autonomous region of the Republic of Azerbaijan
geographically separated from the motherland and surrounded by Armenia.
"As a gesture of goodwill, Armenia could lift the blockade on
Nakhchivan and allow the restoration of its north-south and east-west
connections," said senior foreign policy analyst Burcu Gultekin
Punsmann in a written policy proposal developed for the Economic
Policy Research Foundation of Turkey, or TEPAV.
"This would be a considerable confidence-building measure for the
settlement of the conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh," she said.
Nakhchivan, the former "Gate of the Orient," is at the crossroads
of the east-west and north-south railway connections. In the 17th
century, traveler Evliya Celebi described the city bordered by Iran,
Armenia and Turkey as one of the wonders of the world. Since 1993
a ceasefire line has surrounded Nakhchivan and the Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict cut its communications off from the rest of Azerbaijan.
"The rapprochement between Turkey and Armenia will somehow create a
domino effect with positive implications, from the lifting of the
blockade on Nakhchivan, to the resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh
problem," Punsmann told the Hurriyet Daily News & Economic Review.
"But if the process is stalled, then the whole chain will be negatively
affected."
Nakhchivan is blockaded by Armenia on its west, north and east sides.
All land links with Azerbaijan are also blocked. Flights between
Nakhchivan and Baku are the only remaining direct link.
"Even at the worst times in the war between Armenia and Azerbaijan
over Nagorno-Karabakh in the 1990s, Nakhchivan was able to protect
its territorial integrity. That can be linked with its proximity to
Turkey and the guarantees provided by Turkey. Armenian troops stopped
on the border of Nakhchivan during the war," said Punsmann.
Asked if the Armenian gesture of lifting the blockade on the autonomous
region depends on the opening of the Turkish-Armenian border, she
said it would be inaccurate to put forth preconditions to take any
step but "such a development could be seen in the context of the
Turkish-Armenian rapprochement."
Dilucu border gate may become trade hub
In the policy proposal, Punsmann highlighted that if Yerevan lifted
its blockade on the landlocked region, the reopening of east-west
communications would boost the activities of the Turkish-Azerbaijani
border gate of Dilucu.
Turkey’s Igdır province is located 85 kilometers from the border post
with Nakhchivan and 35 kilometers from the border with Armenia. The
Dilucu border gate, commonly known as Hasret Kapısı, opened in 1992
and a bridge built over the River Araxes links Turkey to Nakhchivan.
"Unlocking Nakhchivan will transform the Turkish-Azerbaijani border
gate of Dilucu into a trade center," said Punsmann. "Dilucu can be
a meeting place for people from Azerbaijan, Armenia, Iran and Turkey."
Plans are also under way to extend the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railroad
to Nakhchivan. Azerbaijan is negotiating with Turkey to construct
a branch line from the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway. The branch will
run to Igdır and further to Nakhchivan. Other new railroad projects
entirely bypass the enclave.