EMMANUEL KARAGIANNIS: A GESTURE, EVEN A SYMBOLIC ONE, FROM YEREVAN IS PROBABLY NECESSARY BEFORE TREATY RATIFICATION
APA
Nov 18 2009
Azerbaijan
"Ankara cannot afford a further deterioration in the Turkish-Azeri
relations"
Profile. Emmanuel Karagiannis is Assistant Professor of post-Soviet
Studies, University of Macedonia at Thessaloniki, Greece. He also
teaches at the Joint War College of Hellenic Armed Forces, and the
Hellenic National Defense College, Greece. His latest book, Energy
and Security in the Caucasus, was also published by Routledge
– The US president Barak Obama just met with his Russian counterpart
Dmitri Medvedev discussing cooperation in security sphere. How would
you describe the current level of cooperation between two countries?
– There are increased indications that the U.S. and Russia have reached
a gentlemen’s agreement over NATO enlargement and the Iranian nuclear
program. Bearing in mind that the Obama administration desperately
needs Russia’s help in Iran, NATO enlargement in the former USSR is
not a priority issue for Washington anymore. Also, there has been a
policy shift in the Russian approach towards Tehran; the Kremlin is
distancing itself from Ahmadinejad’s nuclear ambitions.
– What would be the role of Azerbaijan in that cooperation?
– It is a question of time before the debate about the antimissile
shield returns to the spotlight. Azerbaijan can become a very important
link between Washington and Moscow since Baku enjoyed good relations
with both sides, while the country is located at the crossroads of
Europe and the Middle East. Although it is too soon to tell, Putin’s
offer to use the Russian-operated radar can be discussed again.
– The other tension in US-Russian relations is situation in South
Caucasus, particularly in Georgia. What are the risks of new tensions
in these conflict areas?
– The Georgian-Russian relations will remain tense, but another war
soon is unlikely because the two countries have too much to lose. Yet,
skirmishes along the ceasefire line can happen from time to time.
-How would you estimate the current development in the Nagorno-Karabakh
peace process?
– It won’t be easy for the Armenian government to do concessions over
Nagorno-Karabakh. The unconditional support of the Armenian Diaspora
for the Karabakh Armenians is major obstacle for the settlement of
the conflict in the near future. From the Armenian point of view,
security guarantees must be part of a settlement deal.
– US doubts that without progress in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict
solution, the Turkish-Armenian protocols will be ratified by the
Turkish Parliament, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Philip Gordon
said to press conference in Ankara on Friday. What do you think about
this statement?
– A gesture, even a symbolic one, from Yerevan is probably
necessary before treaty ratification. Ankara cannot afford a further
deterioration in the Turkish-Azeri relations. Yet, Baku should be
more pragmatic regarding relations with Turkey; Azeri and Turkish
interests do not necessarily coincide in the Transcaucasus.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
