VLADIMIR SOCOR: "IT IS NECESSARY TO CONDUCT PROCESSES OF NAGORNO KARABAKH SOLUTION AND TURKISH-ARMENIAN NORMALIZATION NOT IN PARALLEL, BUT IN PROPER DIRECTION" – EXPERT OPINION

APA
Nov 19 2009
Azerbaijan

Baku. Victoria Dementyeva – APA. "It is necessary to conduct processes
of Nagorno Karabakh solution and Turkish-Armenian normalization not in
parallel, but in proper direction", American analyst Vladimir Socor
(Jamestown Foundation) told APA. "The processes of Nagorno Karabakh
solution and Turkish-Armenian normalization are reviewed as parallel
processes, but parallel processes can develop with different rapids.

For example, Turkish-Armenian borders can be opened right tomorrow, but
solution to Nagorno Karabakh conflict and withdrawal of Armenian troops
can take years. Therefore it is necessary to conduct the processes not
in parallel, but in proper direction. The negotiations over both issues
should be developed and the processes will coincide in one point, the
borders will be opened and troops will be withdrawn at the same time".

The analyst said Turkish-Armenian normalization was an initiative
if the United States. "President Barack Obama carelessly promised to
recognize "Armenian genocide" during his election campaign, but the
president didn’t keep his promise, he couldn’t. And Turkish-Armenian
relations were some compensation for unredeemed promise".

Vladimir Socor said ratification of the protocols depended on some
facts, including political processes inside Turkey: "Washington is
rushing in this issue. Regarding Turkey, I consider that they will
delay it until April to gain maximum dividends from the United States".

Answering the APA’s question "Do you have prognosis on the term of
settlement of Nagorno Karabakh conflict and can it take place in
2010 during the presidency of Kazakhstan in OSCE", the analyst said
Kazakhstan shared position of Azerbaijan on this issue. "But unlikely
the presidency of this country will have some effectiveness from this
point of view. Kazakhstan has few opportunity of influence on OSCE.

Some countries have doubts of the Kazakhstan’s presidency in the
organization. Therefore effectiveness of the Kazakhstan’s presidency
was non-effective at the very beginning. The OSCE is an organization
of 56 member countries and every member has a right of veto. I think
there will not be a progress in the settlement of Nagorno Karabakh
conflict in this sphere in 2010. The progress can be only within the
OSCE Minsk Group".