THE NEW POLICY SHIFT FOR TURKEY
By Azat Oganesian

Conservative-Examiner~y2009m11d19-The-new-policy-s hift-for-Turkey
The Examiner
Nov 19 2009

There are some countries in the world that may be categorized as
transcontinental, both in the geographical and cultural sense. One such
country is the Republic of Turkey. A predominantly Muslim country,
it has been a secular republic since its inception from the ruins
of the Ottoman Empire in 1923. Its first president, Mustafa Kemal
Ataturk, sought to mold Turkey in the European image- going as
far as replacing the country’s Arabic script for a Latin one, and
forbidding the wearing of the fez for men and headscarves in secular
contexts for women. It made one contemporary Armenian novelist, Gostan
Zarian, write during his time at Istanbul in the late 1920’s novel
"The Traveler and His Road", that now the Turks have sold out their
nation and religion. That may not have been the view of the Turkish
elites who grew up in the Europeanized atmosphere of Salonika and
Istanbul, but it must have been for the agrarian majority of Turks at
the time. From that period Turkey has tried to be accepted into the
European family, has been given many promises, yet has been always
kept at arm’s length. The most obvious example of this has been the
dialogue since 1963 about Turkey’s accession to the European Union,
which has been accepted by a few countries in Europe, delayed by most
and rejected as absurd by others. In the last year there has been
a new attitude coming from Turkey, that makes one think that this
country is slowly turning its head back to the East, and guiding its
foreign policy in a new way as a result.

"Why be a third rate European country, rather than a first rate Middle
Eastern one" quipped one British poster on a discussion board about
possible Turkish accession to the EU a few years ago. Why indeed?

Turkish passivity regarding many Middle Eastern issues over the last
80 years has recently turned into active engagement. This became
most noticeable at the World Economic Forum at Davos, Switzerland
last year during the Israeli offensive into the Gaza Strip. As
Palestinian civilian casualties mounted, the Turkish Prime Minister
Recep Tayyip Erdo?an lectured the Israeli President Shimon Peres
about his country’s actions in Gaza, to the glee of the present Arab
League President Amr Moussa. The session ended with Erdo?an leaving
the stage angrily. Recently Turkey has refused to hold scheduled
military exercises that Israel was going to be a part of. Likewise,
Turkey is considering having an open border with Syria, with whom it
has many cultural and historic ties; and on a recent trip to Teheran,
Erdo?an stated that he found nothing wrong with Iran’s nuclear
program, which he deemed to be peaceful. To its northeast flank,
Turkey has been more active in the South Caucasus, beyond being the
transit country for oil pipelines from Azerbaijan. Last year, Turkish
President Abdullah Gul visited the Caucasus and spoke about setting up
a forum to solve regional problems. Most importantly for the Caucasus
has been a thaw in relations between Turkey and Armenia, after Gul
accepted the invitation from Armenia’s President Serge Sarkisian
to watch a soccer match in Armenia between the two countries last
year. In October a protocol was signed between the two historical
enemies that would pave the way for an opening of their borders,
which would change the balance of power in the Caucasus.

With this new "ostpolitik" Turkey is playing a leading role in its
neighborhood and is sending a clear message to Europe that it can do
without it, and may even be an obstacle to European security if it
is in Turkey’s interest. Turkey has not rescinded from its official
policy to be a candidate for membership of the European Union, but
it is also widening its options. This new policy is neither in the
interest of the European Union, which would find a new competitor for
influence in the Middle East, nor for the United States, that has
always had a compliant NATO ally in Turkey during the Cold War and
the two Gulf Wars (though Turkey notably refused the US a "northern
corridor" into northern Iraq during the planning for the Iraq War).

The US also has a major military base in Incirlik, Turkey, whose
future may be in question if Turkey chose a policy of a regional
reintegration. So is this new mood a warning shot or a real policy
change? Countries don’t make such drastic changes overnight, so one’s
bound to assume a bluff. But oftentimes a bluff may become a reality
if events unroll in an unexpected manner. All parties involved should
take that into serious consideration.