news.az, Azerbaijan
Nov 21 2009

Archil Gegeshidze: I do not foresee lasting Russian presence in our region
Sat 21 November 2009 | 07:56 GMT Text size:

Archil Gegeshidze News.Az interviews Amb. Archil Gegeshidze, Senior
Fellow of Georgian Foundation for Strategic and International Studies.

How can you assess the established geopolitical situation in the South
Caucasus region?

The situation is undesirable and there are still too many division
lines. We are yet too far from integration. A small territory has so
many lines, so many walls both inside Georgia and the region ` between
you and Armenia. This is not favorable for our countries that are at
the start of their development. Certainly, some has more resources,
others less, but they are not enough for independent development
without cooperating with other countries in the region. Our location
made us mutually dependent which causes the need for our economic and
other interaction. Thus, the current situation does not promote the
peaceful and rapid development of our region. If once we manage to
jump over our head and overcome the political differences and
disputes, we will be able to settle all the issues of our national and
regional interests effectively and through joint efforts. We have no
regional conscience and regional responsibility. We all work for
ourselves and this is harmful for our future. There are some
possibilities and theoretical ways out of the situation but we lack
pragmatism, lack state vision of the future in decades. This is a
vision that should be a basis for the decisions possibly seeming
tactically unprofitable but capable of bringing more benefits within
decades. We lack all these, therefore, the region is suffering. For
this purpose, the neighbors in our region, including small and big
players, are not ready to let us closer, integrate with those
institutions that they created and that have been the most favorable
ones through outthe history. This is a reality that needs changes.

There are countries in our region that bind their future to the West
and there is a country that is inclined towards Russia. How do you see
the overcoming of barriers in these conditions, as the interests of
Russia and West clash again?

The difference you mentioned is a temporary event. This difference
results from the unsettled Karabakh problem. As soon as it is settled,
Armenia will also draw the due conclusion, because as a nation, it is
more inclined to western values than to those Russia propagates. Thus,
this division line is temporary. Though, I do not know how long it
will last, perhaps, until the Karabakh conflict exists. If the
Turkish-Armenian rapprochement leads to the settlement of the Karabakh
conflict, it will cause changes in Armenia’s course. Thus, in this
regard, I do not foresee the lasting Russian presence in our region.

Considering your opinion, it is possible to say that Russia is not
interested in the settlement of the Karabakh conflict for the purpose
of not surrendering Armenia to the West?

Unlike the conflicts in Georgia, Russia is less involved into the
Karabakh conflict and, therefore, is less interested in its
preservation. It has interest in Karabakh though not so great because
unlike Georgia Armenia’s immediate escape to the west is not at issue
in the case of the Karabakh conflict. Armenia may escape but Russia
also may preserve tools to allow its temporary presence in Armenia.
Georgia escapes in any case. Even after August war of the last year
Georgia has not changed its foreign policy. Therefore, answering your
question, I would say that Russia has less potential to resist
internal and external tendencies that stimulate the outcome, which
means Russia has not so many reserves to resist this process. Georgia
has such reserves but they did not work as Russia initiated war. In
case with Karabakh, Russia will be unable to trigger war: it does not
border either on Karabakh or Armenia and there are no Russian citizens
in Karabakh. This is the main difference. In this regard, Karabakh
problem has more chances to be settled than the conflicts in Georgia.

How do see the settlement of conflicts in Georgia after the August war
and recognition of independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia by
Russia?

I think nothing will change in the nearest future as Russia is greatly
interested in preservation of the new quo status after the August war.
Only through this will Russia be able to prevent Georgia’s integration
with NATO or NATO’s penetration into the South Caucasus. Economic
sanctions against Georgia did not work, neither did the hopes for the
firth column in Georgia. On the whole, the pro-Russian policy is
unpopular in Georgia. Thus, the overall pro-western vector is based on
public consensus. Russia could stop this process only through this.
Now Russia will long be standing its ground and I do not know how long
this will last. Some of my colleagues consider that in the near future
Russia will have to quit the Caucasus as it will go through the
processes that happened in the Soviet Union. Let’s hope so! I do not
know when happens. Earth revolves on its axes more rapidly for Georgia
than it does for Russia. We cannot wait for changes or for the second
perestroika in Russia. We will have to find a common language with
Abkhazs and South Ossetians as we will have to live together.

This is a long lasting process requiring Georgia’s transformation from
a post-Soviet state into a European country with its mentality and its
institutions. The contrast of the overall development and living
conditions in Abkhazia and South Ossetia and the rest of Georgia
should be obvious. Moreover, time should pass for Abkhazians to
understand that the proximity to Russia is not profitable for them in
terms of development. If Georgia manages to take practical steps for
institutional integration in EU (I mean closing, but not full
integration), if we manage to conclude a contract of free trade with
the EU within the Eastern Partnership initiative, thus replacing the
lost Russian market with a wider European market, if our citizens are
able to travel to Europe without visas or under simplified visa
regime, this will make Georgia attractive. The Cyprus variant when a
separatist part of the island is now striving to reunification with
the rest part can repeat. This is quite realistic.

Leyla Tagiyeva
News.Az