news.am, Armenia
Nov 21 2009

Things get going: weekly review

09:45 / 11/21/2009Domestic policy

After a long interval, this week has proved to be a politically
eventful one. The pro-government camp’s intensified activities have
been a distinctive feature in contrast to its usual passivity and
responses to the Opposition’s accusations. This time, Armenia’s second
President Robert Kocharyan personally responded to the Opposition
leader Levot Ter-Petrosyan. Robert Kocharyan’s appearance in public is
within the context of his repeated attempts to return to politics.

The statements made by Robert Kocharyan, who, as usual, resorted to
insulting his political opponent, without making any specific
political appraisals, are of no special interest. Another matter is
the disappointment felt by few of Robert Kocharyan’s supporters, who
form part of the Establishment. For months `Kocharyan’s people’ had
been waiting for their `icon’ to give a serious and well-argued
response to the signing of the Armenian-Turkish protocols and the
Nagorno-Karabakh peace process, but Kocharyan only confined himself to
stories about recent hunting in Africa thereby underlining his
alienation from political life.

On the other hand, Kocharyan’s team cannot be said `to be asleep’ ` it
is showing clear signs of political activity. Over the last few months
the ex-president has been `present’ on the political scene by means of
his minions. The Civilitas Foundation headed by the ex-foreign
minister Vartan Oskanian is holding regular events. However, after
Oskanian was actively involved in the tragic events on March 1, 2008,
the Armenian society is unwilling to accept his concern over the
situation in the country as sincere statements by an independent
politician.

In this context, another creature of Robert Kocharyan, the Chairman of
the Prosperous Armenia Party (PAP) and oligarch Gagik Tsarukyan
`launched an offensive.’ He has been actively buying the airtime of
Armenian TV channels lately, and the viewers have to `enjoy’ the
programs about the `charity and generosity’ of Mr. Tsarukyan, who is
not in any way among Armenia’s largest taxpayers. What is more, PAP
representatives kicked up a row at the sitting of the Yerevan
Municipal Council thereby coming into an open conflict with Yerevan
Mayor Gagik Beglaryan, a nominee of the Republican Party of Armenia
(RPA) and its Chairman, RA President Serzh Sargsyan. The
Beglaryan-Tsarukyan confrontation stems from the elections to the
Yerevan Municipal Council on May 31, when the RPA formed an
overwhelming majority and laid hands on the reigns of government in
the Armenian capital. Thus the RPA must have broken `a previous
portfolio arrangement’ with the PAP. The PAP, however, has not yet so
far come into an overt conflict with the RPA.

The PAP’s recently intensified activities are in perfect harmony with
Robert Kocharyan’s repeated attempts to remind the public of his
presence in Armenia’s political life. Strangely enough, the Armenian
authorities do not put any obstacles to the Armenian TV channels
covering the activities of Gagik Tsarukyan and his party. This
situation suggests that the confrontation between the two forces,
which are the backbone of the ruling coalition, is an intricate
combination of undercurrents.

In fact, we can state that the Serzh Sargsyan team has managed to
prevent Armenian Prime Minister Tigran Sargsyan from being involved in
behind-the-scenes activities in case of political tension in the
country as a result of unfavorable developments in the
Nagorno-Karabakh peace process. This is the only plausible explanation
for his sudden admission to the RPA, as well as for the subsequent
statements by RPA representatives that, from now on, the Premier will
not be free in expressing his political views, but will be obliged to
implement the central ruling force’s policy.

The regards the opposition camp, main developments involved Nikol
Pashinyan, Editor-in-Chief of the opposition newspaper Haykakan
Zhamanak. The developments took an unexpected course, which is
evidence of the authorities’ changed tactics. At the November 19 court
sitting, the Prosecution refused to call the most part of the
witnesses involved in the case. It has a logical explanation: a number
of political myths created by the Armenian authorities in interpreting
the March 1, 2008, events were debunked by the conflicting
testimonies. Almost all the witnesses `destroyed’ the Prosecution’s
arguments, which made the Prosecution to refuse to call the others
thereby trying to speed up the proceedings.

The authorities’ `aspiration’ to have a verdict returned as soon as
possible can be explained. Nikol Pashinyan, who is charged with
organizing riots, has been nominated as a parliamentary candidate by
the Opposition at the by-elections in Election District #10 scheduled
for January 10. Pashinyan can run for Parliament without any problems
unless a verdict of guilty is returned before January 10. As regards
the story with a certificate confirming his residence in Armenia over
the last five years, it ended in a verdict obliging the local passport
office to issue the relevant certificate to Pashinyan for him to be
able to get registered as a candidate.

Nagorno-Karabakh peace process

This week has been marked by intensive preparations for the next
Armenian-Azerbaijani presidential meeting. The numerous statements
made on the international scene suggest the conclusion that the key
geopolitical players, Russia, the USA and European Union (EU), have
intensified the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process. The developments show
that the international community is increasing its pressure on Armenia
and Azerbaijan, and the forthcoming Armenian-Azerbaijan presidential
meeting may result in a document on the fundamental settlement
principles.

Although the Azerbaijani authorities’ non-constructive position may
thwart the negotiation process, the geopolitical players, instead of
`neutralizing’ official Baku’s provocations, began making desperate
efforts to achieve the results as soon as possible. The United States’
`outward passivity’ confirms the suppositions that, in contrast to the
Armenian-Turkish relations, Russia is the principal mediator in the
Nagorno-Karabakh peace process. Moreover, at a news conference on the
EU-Russia Summit, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev made a plain
statement on a Russia-West consensus on the ways of settling the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Contrasting the disagreements over last
year’s events in Georgia between Russia and the West with the
`complete agreement’ on the Nagorno-Karabakh problem, the Russian
leader stated: `In particular, we discussed the Nagorno-Karabakh peace
process taking place between Azerbaijan and Armenia. It has made
progress. This is an example of how we can cooperate or could have
cooperated but for last year’s tragedy.’

This year it is impossible to state the reason for the intensified
Armenia-Turkey normalization and Nagorno-Karabakh peace processes in a
clearer way. But for the Russia-West agreement this spring, the
Armenian-Turkish roadmap would not have been signed this April,
Armenian-Turkish protocols would not have been initialed on August 31
and signed on October 10. And now that Yerevan and Ankara have to take
concrete steps to ratify and start implementing the protocols, Moscow
has made statements running counter to its previous ones. Let us take
the OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairs’ statements just before the
Armenian-Turkish protocols were signed. They denied any linkage
between the Armenia-Turkey and Nagorno-Karabakh peace processes On the
other hand, Andrey Nesterenko, official representative of the RF
Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the following statement: `As far as we
know issues related to Nagorno-Karabakh were raised during the
Yerevan-Ankara negotiations. This range of issue must be considered in
this process. Let us hope that all the issues will be settled in
conformity with the decisions made by international organizations and
meet the interests of all the nations of the region.’ So it turned out
that two simultaneous processes are going on, which, according to the
statements made abroad, are so parallel that it can hardly be noticed.

A number of European officials also voiced their opinions on the
intensifying Nagorno-Karabakh peace process on the threshold of the
Aliyev-Sargsyan meeting.

The attempts made by the geopolitical players and international
community to speed up the settlement of the frozen conflict and help
the conflicting parties to reach a peace agreement can only be
welcomed. The mediators, however, are `getting carried away’, making a
fundamental mistake, which may prove too expensive to all the sides
and fatal to the previous efforts and agreements. Do not they
exaggerate the significance of the geopolitical factor in the sides’
making crucial decisions?

Economy and social life

Government officials go on making their assessments of the impact of
the global economic crisis on Armenia, which, however, are getting
less and less convincing. Let us remembers that, just of the threshold
of the unprecedented economic decline, RA Prime Minister Tigran
Sargsyan even said the crisis could be of benefit to Armenia, whereas
RA Minister of Finance Tigran Davtyan’s present assurances do not
sound convincing. The Minister is sure that `Armenia will be ahead of
others in overcoming the consequences of the financial crisis and
restore its economy.’ On the other hand, Armenia was not among the
first to feel the consequences of the crisis, so it will be ahead of
others in overcoming them though the economic decline was among the
most serious in the country. `The economic decline index is a
technical one reflecting the technical aspect of the situation in the
country,’ Davtyan said.

According to the data published this week, the poverty level rose by
2.8% in Armenia in the 2nd quarter of 2009 as compared with the
corresponding period last year ` up to 28.4%. A WB expert cited the
figures at a presentation of a WB report on Armenia.

At the same time, despite criticism, the Armenian Government continues
providing financial guarantees. It is the turn of the Norashen-2007
cooperative society now. The Government has provided it with U.S.
$500,000 guarantees for three years. The aim is to attract credits for
the construction of a residential building in the Achapnyak community
in Yerevan.

At its sitting on November 17, the RA Commission for Protection of
Economic Competition initiated proceedings against 19 major companies
working on the Armenian drug market. Surveys conducted by the
Commission this October-November showed rise in drug prices. The
prices for anti-virus drugs as well as for drugs against
cardiovascular diseases and diabetes showed a sharp rise. The
Commission arrived at the conclusion that the aforementioned economic
entities violate the antimonopoly laws. The Commission intends to
demand documents substantiating the price rise from the importers. The
companies also have to provide all the import and sales documents to
the Commission. The Commission also pointed out the necessity for
finding out the reasons for limited competition on Armenia’s drug
market. On top of all, after swine flue cases were registered in
Armenia, anti-virus medicines and hygienic masks disappeared from
drugstores. And the price for TAMIFLU has been raised several times.

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress