Pressure for progress at talks on rebel Karabakh
Sun Nov 22, 2009 6:32am EST

* Turkey wants progress before opening border with Armenia

* Azeri leader warns of last chance talks, possible force

* Nagorno-Karabakh heart of Caucasus energy transit region

By Anna Holzer

MUNICH, Germany, Nov 22 (Reuters) – The presidents of Azerbaijan and
Armenia met for talks on Sunday on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, with
Azeri ally Turkey pressing for progress before sealing a historic
rapprochement with Armenia.

Azeri President Ilham Aliyev has raised the stakes, warning the
meeting in Germany will be "decisive" and that Azerbaijan’s military
is ready to take back the mountain territory by force.

Aliyev and Armenia’s Serzh Sarksyan met at the French Consul General’s
residence in Munich, their sixth encounter this year.

In comments broadcast on Saturday, Aliyev warned Azeri patience was
running out, a statement analysts say reflects rising tension over the
prospect of Turkey opening its border with Armenia, which
oil-producing Azerbaijan vehemently opposes.

"If that meeting ends without result, then our hopes in negotiations
will be exhausted and then we are left with no other option," Aliyev
said. "We have the full right to liberate our land by military means."

Backed by Christian Armenia, ethnic Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh
threw off rule by Muslim Azerbaijan in fighting that erupted as the
Soviet Union headed towards its 1991 collapse. Some 30,000 people died
before a ceasefire in 1994.

The territory of 100,000 people wants recognition as an independent
state, but 15 years of mediation have failed to produce a peace deal.
Sporadic exchanges of fire continue to threaten war in a key oil and
gas transit region to the West.

LEVERAGE

A bid by Turkey and Armenia to bury a century of hostility stemming
from the mass killing of Armenians by Ottoman Turks has thrust the
Caucasus conflict back into the diplomatic spotlight.

Ankara and Yerevan have signed accords to establish diplomatic ties
and open their border, which Turkey closed in 1993 in solidarity with
Azerbaijan during the war.

The deal carries huge significance for Turkey’s diplomatic clout in
the strategic Caucasus region, for its bid to join the European Union,
and for landlocked Armenia’s crippled economy.

But Azerbaijan has reacted angrily, fearing it will lose leverage over
Armenia in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

Stung by the backlash and facing touch talks over Azeri gas supplies,
Ankara says it wants progress on Nagorno-Karabakh before it ratifies
the Armenia deal. Armenia rejects the link.

Azerbaijan, courted by Europe to supply the planned Nabucco gas
pipeline, often threatens force to take back the region.

U.S., Russian and French mediators say they are making progress in
intensified talks, but Western diplomats say neither side appears
ready to commit to painful concessions.

The principles of a deal would see ethnic Armenian forces give back
most of seven Azeri districts surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh that they
captured during the war. The rebel territory would be granted greater
international legitimacy before a popular vote in the future to decide
its final status.

(Writing by Matt Robinson; editing by Michael Roddy)
((matt.robinson@thomsonreuters.com; +995 32 999 370))