ARMENIA-TURKEY RELATIONS MUST BE NORMALIZED SIMULTANEOUSLY WITH WITHDRAWAL OF ARMENIAN TROOPS FROM TERRITORIES AROUND NAGORNO-KARABAKH: U.S. EXPERT
Today
700.html
Nov 23 2009
Azerbaijan
Day.Az interview with U.S. analyst, Jamestown University (the U.S.)
expert Vladimir Socor.
Day.Az: The Azerbaijani participants to the conference on security in
the Caucasus held in Baku unanimously criticized the West and the EU
for passive attitude to the unresolved Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. What
are reasons for the absence of such an interest in Europe?
Vladimir Socor: "Europe" refers to the European Union. The European
Union still has no common foreign policy. EU tries to develop such
a policy, but it still does not work. France does not represent the
European Union in the "troika" of the Minsk Group co-chairs. France
acts for itself, not on behalf of the EU. Energy interests of the
influential European nations do not coincide. There are a number of
European countries that have no particular interest in energy supplies
from Azerbaijan or the entire Caspian basin. Other European countries
have such interest. But the situation is that those European countries
which have vital interests in the Caspian energy resources are not
the most influential actors within the European Union. That is the
situation within the EU.
There is one more thing that I would like to say in this regard.
Governments and forces that decide foreign policy in Europe do not
connect analysis of energy security with analysis of foreign policy
in general and foreign policy towards the South Caucasus as a whole.
These two analysis are conducted in parallel, but not together.
Q: Are Armenian troops likely to withdraw at least at the first stage
from the occupied territories of Azerbaijan soon?
A: It is unpredictable. A lot can happen in the interim period from
today until April. April is a key term for obvious reasons. A lot can
happen in Turkey and South Caucasus during this period, especially
in the domestic politics of Turkey, in estimations of Washington and,
of course, in estimations of the Azerbaijani government. Developments
are very unpredictable. "Key" is not in Washington, not in Moscow,
not in Baku, but the Turkish public opinion.
If Azerbaijan continues to work successfully with the Turkish public
opinion, it could significantly impact these processes.
Q: Does everything depend on Turkey?
A: A lot depends on Turkey. Following the August events that happened
last year, Turkey initiated the Stability and Cooperation Platform
in the Caucasus excluding EU and the U.S., who also have interests
in the region, from this mechanism. However, the Turkish leadership
has made inconsistent statements so far.
As I mentioned at a conference in Baku, President Barack Obama drove
himself into a trap, promising Armenians a program to recognize the
so-called "Armenian genocide" if elected president. Now he cannot do
it for fear of spoiling relations with its strategic ally of Turkey.
It is impossible to predict how Obama will act in April.
Progress can be achieved in the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict in case normalization of relations between Turkey and Armenia
and opening of border will take place in parallel with withdrawal of
Armenian troops from Azerbaijani territories. But these plans can be
undermined by possible decision in April.
Therefore, I believe that normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations
should be conducted in parallel with withdrawal of Armenian troops
from areas around Karabakh. But the very parallelism is not enough. In
my opinion, we need a synchronization of these two processes so that
they occasionally overlap with each other.
Quick solution to the conflict is impossible. It is obvious. Progress
is possible if the U.S. will be faithful to the game in the region. I
believe that Washington should not sacrifice Turkey’s interests.
Finally, U.S. needs Turkey more than Turkey needs the United States.
Efforts should be made to normalize relations between Azerbaijan and
Turkey which recently experienced a blow. Let us hope that we will see
that after Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan forthcoming visit to the U.S.