ARMENIAN LEADER CANNOT GO AS FAR AS AZERBAIJAN WOULD LIKE – COMMENTATOR

news.az
Nov 23 2009
Azerbaijan

Rasim Agayev News.Az interviews Azerbaijani political scientist
Rasim Agayev.

The latest meeting of the presidents of Azerbaijan and Armenia was
held in Munich on 22 November as part of the process to find a peaceful
resolution to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. At the meeting the heads
of state agreed to continue negotiations on the conflict settlement.

Speaking just after the meeting, the French co-chairman of the OSCE’s
Minsk Group mediators, Bernard Fassier, said that the negotiations will
continue at the level of the two countries’ foreign ministers whom the
presidents have instructed to work on outstanding issues. The ministers
will next meet in Athens in early December during the meeting of the
council of foreign ministers of OSCE member states. The Minsk Group
mediators say there is no alternative to a peaceful settlement of the
conflict, but President Ilham Aliyev said ahead of the meeting that if
Yerevan attempts to drag out a settlement, the negotiations will end.

Can positive changes be expected in Armenia’s position on the Karabakh
conflict?

The negotiations confirm our observations and since the foreign
ministers are involved at the next stage, the process will be
protracted. I think that the foreign ministers will meet, then it will
be the co-chairs’ turn and they will also have a hand in the document
that will be drawn up and the case will go on for a long time. I think
that during this period Turkish-Armenian relations will be clarified
and we will hear positive information about the coordination of
positions on a number of issues concerning Karabakh. It will help bring
Armenian-Turkish relations to actual normalization at a specific stage.

I carefully followed President Ilham Aliyev’s speech and noticed that
he accentuated the state of the negotiation process. It seemed to me
that he wants to inform the people about the complexity facing the
negotiators which is mostly caused by the stubborn position of the
Armenian side that still hopes to keep to its position. On the whole,
the position of the Armenian side is clear, but a new important
detail that hampers the manoeuvrability of Serzh Sargsyan and his
partners should be taken into account. This is that they have moved
forward on compromise with Turkey and now it is difficult for them to
make the same steps on settling the Karabakh conflict, though it is
necessary to take into consideration that it was Armenia who started
to accumulate these problems.

No one asked Armenia to make territorial claims on Turkey. No one asked
Armenia to make up some false historical myths of "genocide". No one
asked Armenians to conduct a policy of revenge on the Turkic world,
talk about the disasters that hit these unhappy people centuries
ago and connect this only with Turks. These are their fables, it is
Armenian intelligence that is to be blamed for everything. In fact,
they have made zombies of their own people. And now it is time to
overcome this situation. Serzh Sargsyan and his ideologists should
work towards this. Nevertheless, Sargsyan considers he cannot go as
far as the Azerbaijani side wants him to go.

But the Azerbaijani side seems to have reached its limit for
compromise. We have waited for so long and, in fact, we have rejected
the use of force to settle the conflict. We have also agreed on a
certain terminology that creates additional obstacles. In particular,
we repeat after the Minsk Group – the occupied territories and
Nagorno-Karabakh. Isn’t Nagorno-Karabakh occupied too? It has been
occupied by the Armenian army like the other seven districts. So
what is the problem? This is a compromise, a concession, a serious
concession that Azerbaijan once made.

We made concessions although we have four United Nations resolutions
and are patiently waiting for the Armenians to liberate these occupied
lands without any preconditions. Therefore, on the one hand Azerbaijan
made concessions and, on the other, Baku has the right to demand
concessions from Armenia.

Last week Araz Azimov, deputy foreign minister of Azerbaijan and
personal representative of President Ilham Aliyev on Karabakh, told
reporters that Armenia has two choices: either settle the conflict or
define the status of Nagorno-Karabakh after Azerbaijanis have returned
there. There is no other choice. Araz Azimov said that the territorial
integrity of Azerbaijan requires the return of the people to their
homes, the restoration of normal conditions for everyday life and the
creation of a normal atmosphere for the further definition of status.

But the next day, on Friday, Armenian Foreign Minister Eduard
Nalbandyan said the return of refugees to Karabakh can be discussed
only after the conflict is settled. The minister said this issue is not
being discussed at the moment as it can be considered only after the
final resolution of the Karabakh conflict when Karabakh has received
due guarantees of security in a wider context, including the return
of 400,000 Armenian refugees.

What Azimov said is also one form of compromise, one way to soften
positions and promote the negotiation process. But Nalbandyan’s
statement proves that Armenia is taking a tougher position. This
is bad.

Azimov’s statement allows for optimism, while Nalbandyan’s words prove
that positions have been hardened and we should not expect anything
good to come out of the upcoming negotiations. In response to these
400,000 Armenian refugees, Azerbaijan may put forward the claims of
over 200,000 Azerbaijanis driven out of Armenia. They left lands that
belonged to Azerbaijanis. We can raise this issue. And if this happens,
the talks will again reach deadlock.

But this is not so terrible. It is terrible that Armenia has in
fact turned to a new way of holding talks, their favourite way of
"historical excuse". Today they will speak of 400,000 and tomorrow
they will speak about something else and in the end we will return to
the problem of "genocide" , as well as the collapse and termination of
the Armenian state in 535. This is an unproductive approach. We need
to settle everything connected with Nagorno-Karabakh. Here, I think,
the possibilities for compromise are not limited for both parties. We
can protract this mediatory status, we can grant new powers on this
mediatory status. We can enhance and narrow down and say a great deal
here if we want to find the best solution for our compatriots.

Unfortunately, I have the impression that the Armenians are protracting
negotiations in the expectation of results on Turkey.

The Armenian-Turkish protocols will be submitted for ratification of
the Yerevan Constitutional Court on Monday 23 November.

As for the negotiations on Turkey, obstacles are possible there and
expectations are possible but I think the issue will advance there.

And it is possible that Serzh Sargsyan’s tactics aimed at holding
separate talks with Turkey and Azerbaijan will be satisfied in this
sense, and I wonder what Armenia will have to say to Azerbaijan.

Therefore, he is striving to accumulate a pack of claims in order
to deny obstacles and create the appearance of concessions. This is
his tactic.

Now he has made up 400,000 victims and said Azerbaijanis will be
able to return only after the conflict is settled. And then the new
round of talks will continue and at a certain stage they will say
"all right, we will forget the 400,000". And then they will have made
a concession on that too.