EU CAN INSIST ON A WITHDRAWAL OF ARMENIAN FORCES FROM AZERBAIJAN

news.az
Nov 23 2009
Azerbaijan

Borut Grgic News.Az interviews Borut Grgic, founder and director
of the Institute for Strategic Studies in Brussels and non-resident
senior fellow at the Atlantic Council.

Don’t you think that EU could and must be more active in resolution
of the Karabagh conflict?

The EU should start by having a common set of principles that outline
its position on the frozen conflicts in the South Caucasus – respect
for territorial integrity and sovereignty are two fundamentals. The
EU could use the Eastern Partnership track and its dialogue framework
with Armenia to insist on a withdrawal of forces from Azerbaijan.

Finally, Europe could help with institution building and peacekeeping
in NK after a peace deal is reached.

France as it seems is not quite active as a co-chair of the Minsk
group. May be it would be more useful to change representative of EU
in Minsk group?

Replacing the French co-chair with an EU co-chair is not really
an option. However, the EU can and probably should insist on more
coordination between the French co-chair and the EU ministers on
fine-tuning a common EU position, and use the French co-chair to
exert greater influence on the Minsk Group process.

What kind of influence had war in Georgia on settlement of Karabakh
conflict?

If anything, the war in Georgia raised the profile of the frozen
conflicts, and the urgency to find a solution for NK.

Do you think real new war between Azerbaijan and Armenia in near
future?

I don’t think a war between the two countries is likely, as there is
too much at stake and once a war is launched, the ability to control
the outcome decreases exponentially. However, I do think that the
status quo is equally as damaging, and it is a real set back to
regional development and integration into the Euro-Atlantic structures.

There is no common view in EU at Karabakh conflict. Is it common
problem of EU’s foreign policy or something else?

I think Europe has a common position on NK, but perhaps the vagueness
of this common position is a reflection of divisions within the EU on
Europe’s relations with Russia, and through that, the region. Some
states are overly sensitive to Russia’s bickering and unwilling to
engage in the Caucasus-Caspian region for fear of undermining their
economic relations with Russia. It is possible to say that EU’s common
foreign and security policy is more often than not the expression of
a compromise between 27 opinions. Thus, it is not realistic to expect
the same clarity and focus on difficult issues from Europe as you’d
get from a state.