KARABAKH CONFLICT INFLUENCES EUROPEAN SECURITY

news.az
Nov 23 2009
Azerbaijan

Andrew C. Kuchins News.Az interviews Andrew C. Kuchins, director and
senior fellow of the Russia and Eurasia Programme at the Centre for
Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

The Azerbaijani leadership thinks a resumption of the Karabakh war
is realistic. Do you think the threat of a new war is great?

A war between Azerbaijan and Armenia will become a direct threat to
European security. This became obvious especially after last year’s
war between Russia and Georgia. Therefore, though the Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict seems to be of regional concern, its influence on European
security is undoubted, considering the importance of the region and
regional countries for Europe.

Baku accuses the European community of closing its eyes to the
Karabakh conflict. Do you agree with this position and, if so, what
is the reason for this indifference?

I understand the disappointment of the Azerbaijani party as the
conflict has not yet been settled, although more than 15 years have
already passed. But I can’t say the world community, in particular,
the West, does not do anything at all. They merely abstain from
direct intervention in this complicated problem. The main issue is
that the Armenians do not want to change the status quo. Moreover,
Russia is also involved in this matter.

What do you mean when you say "Russia is involved"?

I think Russia has no real interest in the settlement of this
conflict. And I do not agree with the statement voiced at the recent
Baku conference on security in the South Caucasus that there is
no difference between Washington and Moscow’s positions on the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

You mentioned the implications of war in Georgia. What conclusions
has the West drawn from this war?

Indeed, the war in Georgia was a wake-up call for most parties,
especially in the West that realized the threat of frozen conflicts.

This has become a stimulus for the settlement of similar problems. We
see more action, we see signs of advancement in conflict settlement.

You doubt the mediation role of Moscow, although the Moscow declaration
was the first document signed between Azerbaijan and Armenia throughout
the negotiation process and this was done in Moscow with the mediation
of President Medvedev.

This is merely a declaration.

Do you expect the resolution of the Karabakh conflict anytime soon?

I don’t think it will be settled next year. Perhaps, this will happen
in three to five years. It would depend on Russia’s understanding of
the importance of the resolution. But I do not think that key figures
in the Russian leadership think so.