AZERBAIJAN: PROVOCATIONS ONLY HOPE
By Ivan Gharibyan

news.am
Nov 24 2009
Armenia

Azerbaijan has, as usual, "held special celebrations" of the regular
meeting between Armenian and Azerbaijani Presidents, Serzh Sargsyan
and Ilham Aliyev. The sides made appreciable progress in agreeing on
the fundamental principles of settling the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

The processes going on in both the states are further evidence of
the different moods shown by the authorities and public in connection
with the imminent settlement of the protracted conflict.

It is the different approaches by official Yerevan and Baku, as
well as by the Armenian and Azerbaijani societies that are the only
obstacle to an early settlement of the conflict. A simple formula for
the aforementioned different approaches is evident. The Armenian side
realizes the necessity for mutual and painful concessions, which are
a necessary and sufficient condition for settling the conflict. The
stance of the Armenian authorities, which are practically showing
their readiness for settling the conflict, is what is driving the
Azeri regime of its wits, forcing it into desperate steps, which,
in turn, contribute to Azerbaijan’s international isolation.

The last of the steps were President Ilham Aliyev’s warlike statements
on the threshold of the Munich meeting, and even the OSCE Minsk Group
had to openly condemn them. After the meeting, which admittedly showed
progress, Baku decided to resort to a provocation. According to the
available information on the contents of the document known as the
Madrid Principles, at the first stage of settlement the Armenian
side is to return only five of the seven regions neighboring on the
Nagorno-Karabakh Republic (NKR) to Azerbaijan. As regards Kelbajar
and Lachin, the issue will "be on the agenda" in five years provided
neither side violates the previous agreements. However, internationally
pressured and stalemated, Azerbaijan has immediately resorted to
spreading disinformation on the withdrawal of Armenian troops from
Kelbajar in the immediate future.

What is the aim of the provocation the Azerbaijani authorities resorted
to the day after the Sargsyan-Aliyev meeting? It is obvious: after
they have come down to an open condemnation of their warlike threats
by the mediators and, under international pressure, are now faced with
a necessity for revising their non-constrictive position, Ilham Aliyev
and his milieu are placing their last hopes on the Armenian society’s
discontent with the concessions the Armenian leader is ready for. That
is the reason why, the five regions not yet "at Azerbaijan’s disposal,"
Baku has begun speaking about the sixth. The Azerbaijani authorities
have to distract public attention from the issue of referendum on
the status of Nagorno-Karabakh, a condition President Ilham Aliyev
has to accept under international pressure.

The negotiation process has reached a point when the "the house
of cards" built by the Azerbaijani authorities has collapsed. Baku
perceived the Armenian side’s readiness as a ground for taking a harder
line. Now that the negotiation process is nearing "the crucial point",
the mediators and geopolitical players have made it clear for Aliyev
that the territories neighboring on Nagorno-Karabakh can be returned
only after an agreement on a referendum on Nagorno-Karabakh’s status
has been reached.

The fact of steadily mounting pressure on official Baku was admitted
by Novruz Mamedov, Head of the International Department, Azerbaijani
Presidential Administration. Speaking at the international conference
"Obstacles to Security in the South Caucasus: realities and prospects
of regional cooperation" organized by the Center for Strategic Studies
at the Azerbaijani Presidential Administration, he slated the West,
particularly the United States. The high-ranking official’s statements,
which were, of course, a reflection of the official position, boiled
down to Azerbaijan’s offence at the United State and the entire West
for their demanding specific mutual concessions to the Armenian side
instead of indulging the Azeri authorities’ non-constructive position.

The desperate efforts, however, will not help Azerbaijan break the
deadlock it has found itself at. Hopes for dividends from "flirting
with" the Kremlin do not promise anything to Ilham Aliyev and his
milieu either. Just a few days ago Russian President Dmitry Medvedev
reported a full agreement on the Nagorno-Karabakh problem between
Russia and the West. So Azeri authorities had better take a realistic
view of the geopolitical processes going on in the region – and do
it as soon as possible — so as not to come off a complete loser.