I’M NOT SURE ARMENIAN-TURKISH BORDER WILL OPEN SOON: U.S. EXPERT
Today
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Nov 24 2009
Azerbaijan
Day.Az interview with expert at the U.S.-based Council on Foreign
Relations Jeffrey Mankoff.
Day.Az: May a possible improvement in the U.S.-Russian relations have
an impact on the policies of these two countries in the Caucasus,
specifically, resolution of conflicts in the region?
Jeffrey Mankoff: Improved U.S.-Russian relations are likely to have an
impact on their ability to achieve progress in resolving conflicts in
the Caucasus. The U.S. and Russia diplomats played an important role
in signing of the Armenian-Turkish protocols. The main factor in this
agreement is Turkish interests in solving regional disputes in order
to promote Turkey’s role as a regional political "broker". However,
the signing of the "deal" would not have been possible without the
U.S.-Russia cooperation which in turn appeared only in past year or
without Moscow’s and Washington’s attempts to improve the overall
climate of bilateral relations.
Q: Do you expect speedy progress in resolving ethnic conflicts such
as Nagorno-Karabakh?
A: Not really. The only way Turkey and Armenia could achieve even a
limited deal is to put aside the issue of Nagorno-Karabakh. Given the
pressure on the Armenian government, Armenia will unlikely be able to
make any concessions on Nagorno-Karabakh. Turkey also needs to retain
some leverage with Azerbaijan which was very upset by agreement between
Turkey and Armenia. It will take time to analyze these protocols and
consider them in the Turkish and Armenian parliaments.
Moving forward in a more complex Nagorno-Karabakh conflict may take
more time.
Q: Armenia is the only one of three South Caucasian states where
there is a strong Russian influence. Do you think the United States
is studying opportunities to strengthen its influence there in order
to weaken Russia’s influence?
A: I think that the U.S. is trying to avoid considering its relations
with the Caucasus countries as an alternative to Russia’s influence.
In fact, the U.S. wants Armenia to agree to take part in the pipeline
project from the Caspian Sea to Europe which Russia opposes.
Q: Azerbaijan has signed a deal with Russia to supply gas to this
country starting from 2010. It is argued that Baku made this move
being disappointed at the slow of implementation of projects such
as Nabucco which is aimed at ensuring European energy security. What
are your views?
A: I think that there are several factors in Azerbaijan’s decision.
First, following the August events in Georgia, it seemed that the
regional balance in the Caucasus has changed. Secondly, there are
difficulties by Turkmenistan in the Nabucco issue and the lack
of funding.
Q: Do you expect the Armenian-Turkish border to open soon, or at least,
before there is progress in the Karabakh settlement?
A: I’m not sure about the "soon", but the border is likely to open
before the problem of Nagorno-Karabakh. Armenia has a financial
interest in opening of the border. For the Armenian diaspora, which has
not directly confronted the consequences of political and economic
isolation of Armenia, it is easy to criticize this arrangement,
which does not address the issue of Karabakh. Armenian citizens
will certainly benefit from it. In turn, opening of the border would
increase the regional weight of Ankara including in its negotiations
with the European Union.