HOW SERIOUS ARE ILHAM ALIYEV’S THREATS?
Karine Ter-Sahakyan

PanARMENIAN.Net
24.11.2009 GMT+04:00

They made it clear for the "militant" president that in this historical
period his words are inappropriate.

The meeting between the Presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan in
Munich is over, giving rise to the already accumulated problems of
Karabakh settlement and adding to them, one might say, some unexpected
processes. After the meeting, reporters were of different opinions
about whether the meeting ended as usual, with yet another statement
issued by the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs. But is it really so?

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ Let us begin with the information that the meeting,
or rather its threshold, was "marred" by ordinary sharp and bellicose
statements of the Azerbaijani President. "We will liberate our
lands by force" declared the Azerbaijani President before every
Sargsyan-Aliyev meeting, but these statements were paid absolutely
no attention to. However, this time exactly with this declaration the
world media began their reports from Munich. One could even say that
they took the Aliyev threats very seriously, and, as a consequence,
the tone of the publications changed. They made it clear for the
"militant" president that in this historical period his words
are inappropriate. Moreover, they can actually provoke a war that
would not in the best way affect not only the region (which is last
thought about), but also the mediators, namely Russia, France and the
United States. To be honest, the war in the Caucasus is beneficial
only to Russia, which at one stroke can regain her lost positions,
irrespective of who will win the war. The fact that the number of
estimated losses of the Azerbaijani army has been voiced, suggests the
actual possibility of a military solution to the conflict, or rather,
the possibility of yet another defeat of the Azerbaijani army. We do
not yet say that war is inevitable, but the conflicting parties may be
put before this fact too. What will Ilham Aliyev and his entourage do,
if it doesn’t come out as he wants it to, but as it should? Examples
are apparent: Heydar Aliyev successfully lost the war and signed a
cease-fire agreement, immediately promising his people that he would
"return the lands". Oops! He didn’t manage. The same fate awaits
his son.

Generally speaking, we do not want to take seriously any of Ilham
Aliyev’s statements, and it is at first sight strange that all the
interested parties should have made a fuss over this statement. In the
words of Vafa Guluzade, who has long been close to the Aliyev family
and knows them quite well, in reality the position of the parties
remains unchanged. "Armenia insists on unification or independence of
Nagorno-Karabakh, but Azerbaijan refuses. As far as some new elements
are concerned, they are not so noteworthy," declared Guluzade.

Touching upon the reasons for extremely harsh statements issued by the
Azerbaijani authorities on the possibility of ending the negotiation
process and resuming military actions, Guluzade quoted the OSCE Minsk
Group Russian Co-Chair Yuri Merzlyakov, who had stressed that such
statements are purely for internal use.

Well, maybe this time the statements were not so much for internal use,
but no good came of them either. War in the region is beneficial to no
one, and especially to Azerbaijan. Meanwhile, few people noticed that
almost all the publications of the world media said, yet disguised,
that it is the war of Karabakh Armenians, who proclaimed independence
and behind whom stands Armenia. The terminology "war between Armenia
and Azerbaijan" gradually gives way to "negotiations between Baku and
Stepanakert". And the only essential thing now to do is to ensure
security of communications and stability in the region that faces
a more serious threat: the possible establishment of "Independent
Kurdistan" by the United States. That’s when really neither Turkey
nor Iran or Syria and especially Ilham Aliyev will be in the mood
to occupy themselves with Karabakh issues. The recently signed pact
between Turkey, Syria and Iran aimed exactly against the establishment
of a Kurdish state. So, the world powers are concerned about itt,
and not about "the efforts of the Minsk Group", which somehow or
other does its job. Moreover, this activity is not honorary for the
mediating countries. Money begins to flow like water, when there is
the possibility of military solution to a conflict, as it was the
case with the former Yugoslavia.