IT WAS THE SAME IN 1915

Lragir.am
25/11/09

At the request of Lragir.am, Igor Muradyan comments on the comments
and expectations in connection with the meeting of the Armenian and
Azerbaijani presidents in Munich on November 22.

– The meeting of the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan in Munich
in November 2009 shows little new in the processes of the region
and the Karabakh issue. Outrageous scene still occurs for outside
observers, when the president of Azerbaijan continues threatening by
military actions, and the Armenian president pretends that the real
negotiations are continuing.

First of all, it should be noted that the three centers of power are
the main actors in the South Caucasus – the United States, European
Union, represented by France and Russia – assess the likelihood of
renewed hostilities between Armenia and Azerbaijan solely on the basis
of certain agreements of Azerbaijan and Turkey and possible solutions
in this connection and nothing else. This is the reason why external
players do not take for serious Ilham Aliyev’s threats.

Serge Sargsyan is still trying to show himself as a flexible political
figure, receiving the signals from the West and the East as the only
guide to action. Sargsyan is still trying to gain time, to prolong the
period of imitation of the talks, realizing the approval of external
parties, but at the same time realizing that after the events of the
past year, the United States, Russia and the EU are unable to fully
guarantee the continuation of ceasefire in the Karabakh zone. These
power centers can significantly influence the behavior of both parties,
but they cannot also guarantee the continuation of the truce, just as
the U.S. failed to guarantee the continuation of the settlement of
the Armenian-Turkish relations after the signing of the "Protocols"
in Zurich.

If Turkey tries to demonstrate the seriousness of their "new" position
in the region, then Azerbaijan will give a signal on the beginning of
the war, not paying attention to the views of politicians, representing
the world’s centers of power. Another matter, that Turkey does not
yet need it and the value of the Karabakh province for Turkey is
equal to zero.

Alongside with this, Serge Sargsyan is little likely to play such
dangerous and vulnerable games only for the sake of imitation the
way he is quite determined in settling the Karabakh issue within the
provisions of the principles of Madrid. The Armenian president has
repeatedly stated over years, that territories are to be yielded, in
addition within the frameworks of the offered "scheme". He thinks that
it is better to yield a part than to lose the whole. It is quite logic
from the point of an Armenian bourgeois or an Armenian citizen who have
something to lose. (Wasn’t there such logic before 1915 and a thesis
which would say "Gentlemen we have to live adequately to the life"?).

Activities of the Armenian president are not politics and it cannot
be called politics, it is just behavior. In practice, negotiations
are continuing in terms of direct threats, after which the president
Aliyev went to Moscow, apparently, to strengthen these agreements. The
U.S. is currently trying to pretend that they continue to adhere to
the declared principles of indifference between the Karabakh and
the Turkish-Armenian settlement, but in fact, they hope for the
elimination of Azerbaijani influence on Turkey in this issue. Not
surprisingly, the direct threat of the president of Azerbaijan did
not receive proper evaluation of either the U.S. or Russia. I wonder
what the same superpowers would have done if the president of Armenia
had made such a statement.

Armenia recedes, more and more losing the previous benefits, continuing
the simulation at any cost. Perhaps this would make sense if the real
intentions of Mr. Serge Sargsyan in the Karabakh topic lacked. The
Munich meeting and the taken arrangement may demonstrate much to
Turkey from the point that the Karabakh settlement is moving forward
and it can decide whether to open the border or not according to the
"Protocols". But the main result was that, regardless of the assurances
of the U.S. and Russia, Turkey became an immediate and, perhaps, a key
member of the Karabakh process. At the same time, there is no hope for
a "lifeline" of the world’s centers of power. In any case, with regard
to the U.S., this issue becomes quite unnecessary among their concerns.